Ex-Israel ambassador to U.S. warns of 'strategic nuclear' war erupting over Russia-Ukraine conflict

Multiple wars could break out in the near future following escalating tensions with Russia and the Biden administration's nuclear deal with Iran, former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren told "Just the News - Not Noise" on Tuesday.

Oren, a combat veteran, has been involved in two wars that he says were determined by "one artillery shell,"  and he told Editor-in-Chief John Solomon and co-host Amanda Head that  "strategic nuclear" war is just a single incident away during Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

While more than two million people have fled Ukraine following Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion, Oren said, "All you need is one errant Russian missile to hit that metro or to hit a line of refugees."

The bombing would change global opinion and put "tremendous pressure" on the United States and other Western governments to get more involved in the war, such as by establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

"Once you have a no-fly zone, you're going to have a Russian plane shot down. And that's when things began to spiral," Oren predicted.

"The possibility of an actual sort of tactical nuclear exchange leading to a strategic nuclear exchange is not beyond the realm of the possible," he said. "I've been saying this now for a couple weeks now."

The American-born Oren served as Israel's ambassador to the U.S. from 2009 to 2013. He was later elected to the Knesset under the centrist Kahlon party. 

He noted that he has seen some Washington, D.C., think tanks come to a similar conclusion about the prospects of a nuclear exchange.

"You're one major incident away. And it's highly, highly, highly combustible," he said. 

Oren also predicted that the longer the Ukrainian resistance fights against Russian forces, the more the United States and other Western powers would get involved by sending military supplies. He predicted that Israel, which has remained neutral in the conflict, would begin sending defensive military supplies at that point.

"I don't think that that it's morally or strategically smart for Israel to stand on the side and retain neutrality," Oren said, criticizing fact that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has been acting as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

"It's a gamble because if the mediation fails, we're left being neutral and not having the moral high ground," Oren said.

One of the major issues is that Israel has been cooperating with Russian forces in Syria without a single clash over the last seven years, the ambassador observed. 

"Iran is trying to transform Syria into a forward-firing base against Israel," Oren said.

However, Iran is closely aligned with Russia and the two countries are working closely together to revive the Obama-era JCPOA nuclear deal.

Throughout the nuclear deal talks, several career staffers at the State Department have resigned because "America is making too many concessions" to Iran, Oren said. "Certainly, it's reason for deep concern here," he added.

Oren also criticized the original 2015 nuclear deal, which the Biden administration is currently in talks to reenter with Iran in exchange for sanctions relief.

"The Iran deal of 2015 was presented as a deal that would block Iran's path to the bomb, though that was a lie, it actually paved Iran's path to the bomb, and assured that Iran, after a little more than a decade, would be in a position to enrich enough uranium not for one bomb, but for 100 bombs," he said. "And that agreement did nothing to stop Iran from developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that could carry a warhead."

While the Biden administration has blamed former President Donald Trump for Iran's current nuclear capabilities, Oren said that Trump's sanctions on Iran worked. 

The Islamic Republic "didn't start violating the agreement until it was sure that the next administration had won the presidential election," Oren said.

If the Iran deal goes as poorly as it is rumored to do so for the United States, Oren said it will lead to war.

"They are going to get a better deal for Iran, so bad that these professionals in the State Department have quit," He predicted. "And a better deal for Iran means a strategic and potentially existential danger for [Israel], and I'm going to say something radical and unequivocal. And that is that if this deal if it is what we think it is, what we fear it's going to be, will lead inextricably toward a regional war."

Oren pointed out how the Biden administration has stuck up for Ukraine but has made concessions to Iran.

"What I don't understand is how on one hand, you can take a principled, strong, even economic position on the Ukrainian issue, and then turn around and lift sanctions are one of the most repressive regimes on earth for a deal that will at best delay a nuclear program for a couple of years… and in the process, enable Iran to threaten strategically and perhaps even existentially, some of America's closest allies in the world," he said.