Major election forecaster gives Republicans 10-point edge in winning control of Senate

GOP "slightly favored" to take upper chamber in next week's midterms.

Updated: November 5, 2022 - 4:44pm

The Facts Inside Our Reporter’s Notebook

A major election forecaster is projecting the Republican party to win control of the U.S. Senate by a comfortable margin, a sign that President Joe Biden's agenda ambitions will likely be considerably frustrated in the second half of his term.

FiveThirtyEight projects that the GOP is "slightly favored" to win the Senate, giving Republicans a 55% chance of taking control of that chamber after next week’s midterms. 

Those numbers have shifted considerably in recent weeks. As recently as Oct. 15, the forecaster gave Democrats the 55% advantage; by Halloween of this year the two parties were in a dead heat, after which Republicans edged slightly upward. 

The website also gives Republicans a considerable edge in taking the U.S. House next week, giving the GOP an 84% chance of seizing power in the lower house on Tuesday.