U.S. debate over Ukraine aid raises questions about whether European Union will 'step up'

The sharp debate in the U.S. about whether to continue providing aid to Ukraine in its effort to fend off Russia's now roughly 23-month war has sparked debate in Europe about what could happen if the Ukrainian’s biggest military benefactor halts or severely cuts back its support. 

As 2023 drew to a close, the White House approved a new, relatively small $250 million aid package for Ukraine. But when – and if – the next tranche will be approved is anyone’s guess, as GOP lawmakers are insisting that $110 billion in aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other security priorities be tied to action on domestic border security.

Furthermore, aid to Ukraine could be cut off for good if Donald Trump is successful in his bid this year to win a second presidential term.  

Where does that leave European Union members, which are Ukraine’s other major backer and which have felt the impacts of the war most acutely in terms of economics and refugees?

“If the U.S. draws back, European countries will have to step up, but it is difficult to see how they would be able to fill the gap the U.S. would leave in terms of military backing,” said Thomas Christiansen, executive editor of the Journal of European Integration and a political science professor at Rome’s LUISS School of Government. 

“The U.S. is uniquely qualified to provide not just military equipment but also access to satellite imagery, signal intercepts, and other intelligence sharing,” Christiansen told Just the News. “A significant reduction in support from the U.S. would fundamentally change the calculus of the war.”

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, European Union institutions are the biggest overall contributor – meaning combined financial, military and humanitarian aid – to Ukraine through the end of October, contributing $93.4 billion compared to $78.6 billion from the U.S.

But most of the support from the E.U. has been aimed at propping up Ukraine’s war-torn economy, not in supporting its military. 

In terms of direct and indirect military aid, the U.S. stands head and shoulders above other donors.

Washington’s military aid to Ukraine since the start of the war has totaled $48.3 billion, dwarfing the $6.2 billion from E.U. institutions, as well as the $18.8 billion from Germany, the $3.9 billion from Denmark and the $3.3 billion from Poland – the three largest individual contributors among E.U. member states. 

Even European support for Ukraine could be put in question this year, due to elections that could reshape the European Parliament in June, and national elections in Finland, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia – all E.U. member states with governments that strongly support the 27-nation bloc’s support of Ukraine. 

Russia is also set to vote in March, though Vladimir Putin’s reelection there as president is a foregone conclusion. 

“Without the U.S., I suspect that European military assistance for Ukraine would continue to muddle along, perhaps alongside more symbolic support such as sped up talks on Ukraine joining the European Union,” Christiansen said. 

“But in a way, European governments have been muddling through up to this point,” he went on. “Are countries acting in a way to assure Ukraine will win? Or do they want to prevent Russia from winning? It mostly seems to be the latter and that level of support would most likely continue in some fashion even without the U.S.”