Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, has carved out a lead over state Rep. Josh Turek, D-Iowa, in the race to replace Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, according to a recent survey.

Hinson carved out 45% support in the latest Suffolk University survey, with Turek trailing with 41%. The survey's 4.4% margin of error means the race is still technically a statistical tie.

Iowa has shifted toward Republicans since 2016 and the race is unexpectedly close. While Hinson is still favored, a Democratic upset could go a long way toward flipping the Senate to the opposition party.

On the gubernatorial side, Democrat Rob Sand took 48% support to Republican Zach Lahn's 44%, also keeping the race a statistical tie.

Conducted Aug. 20-23, the survey questioned 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent for Just the News. Follow him on X.