'Ghost transits' leaking oil from Strait of Hormuz may be preventing greater energy crisis: analysis

JPMorgan estimates that about 2.1 million barrels per day over the final two weeks of May made it onto the market as a result of these "clandestine flows."

Published: June 9, 2026 9:12am

While the Strait of Hormuz has been blockaded by both the U.S. and Iran for the past three months due to the conflict in Iran, oil futures haven't risen to the dangerous levels that some experts have forecasted. 

An analysis by JPMorgan suggests that this may be due to a large amount of crude slipping through the double blockade by way of tankers transiting the strait with their transponders turned off to avoid detection, CNN reported

JPMorgan estimates that about 2.1 million barrels per day over the final two weeks of May made it onto the market as a result of these "clandestine flows." This is a small but impactful part of the 15.6 million barrels per day that flowed through the strait prior to the war. 

Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group, told CNN that these clandestine flows aren't enough to avoid large inventory draws, but they are taking some of the edge off the impacts of the blockades. 

 

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