Europe is expected to have a record-breaking summer travel season, despite Americans preferring – or being forced – to stay at home and is instead relying on so-called "intra-travel" and visitors from China.    

To be sure, the cost of airline tickets, as a result of the higher jet-fuel prices amid the U.S. war with Iran, has been a major factor. A recent survey from Cirium, an airline analytics watcher, found that U.S.-to-Europe bookings this year are down 7.3% compared to a year earlier. 

However, Americans are faced with several other factors in deciding not to travel to such destinations as Italy or Portugal including a weaker dollar, broad economic uncertainty and the 2026 World Cup jointly hosted by Canada, Mexico and the United States. 

Furthermore, Americans appear to have soured on summer in Paris or other European vacations long before this season – after having fueled Europe’s post-pandemic economic recovery by filling hotel rooms across the continent, spending generously and otherwise boosting Europe's devastated tourism industry. 

Years of Europeans openly complaining about American tourists crowding their prized cities is also a big factor.

The European Travel Commission says its surveys showed that the share of Americans who said they’re interested in visiting Europe has declined from 45% in 2024 to 37% last year to just 34% in 2026. 

Despite those trends, overall tourist arrivals in Europe are expected to set a record high for the third consecutive year. Last year European countries saw 793 million international tourist arrivals, compared to 747 million in 2024, the year that broke the pre-pandemic record of 743 million in 2019. This year, the number is expected to top 800 million for the first time.

This comes a year after Europe was rocked by protests against over-tourism, ranging from organized demonstrations involving squirting water on visitors in Barcelona to major protests over the disruptions from the Jeff Bezos-Lauren Sanchez wedding in Venice. 

Tourism officials say the changing mix of visitors this year is evidence of broader diversification of demand and not a weakening of Europe’s appeal.

“Europe continues to stand out as a reliable destination and is well positioned to respond to evolving demand for more flexible travel,” Miguel Sanz, head of the European Travel Commission said in a statement earlier this year. 

Sanz noted that a 28% increase in tourist arrivals from China, nearly a 10% increase from India, and more frequent travel between European countries, known or intra-travel, are helping to compensate for the anticipated reduction in the number of U.S. visitors.

But increased arrivals do not always result in more revenue for popular tourist destinations. American visitors are generally valued for staying longer at their destination and spending more on hotels, dining, and shopping. A European Travel Commission analysis, for example, found that U.S. travelers allocate 52% of the vacation budget to accommodations, compared to an average of 33% for long-haul travelers overall.

That means that even as European destinations cope with rising numbers of arrivals, they may earn less revenue per capita as some American visitors are replaced by travelers who spend less.