California voters likely to approve major new spending, crack down on crime

(The Center Square) - According to new statewide polling, Californians are poised to pass billions in new spending and approve new spending powers, while also cracking down on crime.

A statewide Public Policy Institute of California poll found 73% of voters support Proposition 36, which would allow for felony charges for serial thieves and major drug crimes, thereby reforming Prop. 47, a measure approved in 2014 that turned many drug and theft crimes into misdemeanors that could not be prosecuted as felonies. It would also create a “treatment-mandated felony” crime class that would allow individuals to complete mental health or substance abuse treatment instead of going to prison.

Prop. 47 was sold to voters as a means of saving money by reducing prison populations, and investing that money in social programs that would reduce future crime; a new analysis from the Manhattan Institute found the measure increased recidivism, crime, and trial no-shows.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has opposed Prop. 36, saying “It’s about mass incarceration, not mass treatment,” but with 67% of Democrats supporting the measure, it’s likely to pass, even with the governor’s disapproval.

Prop 5., which would amend the state constitution’s limits on new taxes to allow municipalities to take out bonds for housing and infrastructure projects with a 55% vote instead of a ⅔ vote has support of 49% of voters, and will be a close call. This 55% threshold was lowered for school bonds only in 2000 by 53.31% of voters. The bill also would allow bond funds — which would be paid for by property taxes — to be spent on down payment assistance, government facilities, public infrastructure, and even utilities, and be retroactive, thereby allowing any bonds approved in this November election with more than 55% but less than ⅔ support to go into effect.

43.5% of Californians are homeowners, meaning that, should the bill pass, California’s majority could more easily get homeowners to pay for expanded local programs and spending.

A slight 52% majority appears narrowly poised to pass Prop. 2, which would take out a $10 billion bond for K-12, community college, and technical education program facility upgrades, with an estimated $7.5 billion in interest payments for a total of $17.5 billion over 35 years.

Only 42% of voters support Prop. 33, which would allow governments to enact more rent control, suggesting the measure has little chance of reaching the simple majority threshold to pass; while Prop. 33 has the support of 55% of Democrats, its 18% support from Republicans and 42% support from independents leaves the measure likely dead on arrival.

The same goes for Prop. 32, which would raise the minimum wage to $18 per hour for companies with 26 or more employees and has the support of only 44% of voters.

Only 41% of voters support Prop. 6, which would ban prisoners from being forced to work.

47% of voters support Prop. 34, which would limit how the AIDS Healthcare Foundation uses its profits from buying drugs with federal discounts and selling the drugs to other government agencies at the normal price; the organization uses much of its money to promote various ballot initiatives across California, such as efforts to expand rent control.

Prop. 35 would make a $7-8 billion annual tax on managed healthcare insurance plans permanent, and use the funds to pay doctors higher rates for Medicare to encourage more doctors to accept Medicare patients; the measure has the support of a solid 62% of voters, but Newsom has opposed the tax for limiting how the state government uses revenue.

Prop 3., which would remove language in the state constitution defining marriage as between a man and a woman, has support from more than two-thirds of voters and seems likely to pass.