Cook Report shifts some California congressional seats to GOP's favor

With just a week left until election day, three California seats in the House of Representatives in Democratic districts have been identified as shifting towards the GOP, designations highlighting the state’s more competitive races in a high-stake midterm election.

Cook analysts have identified three California House seats that have been historically held by Democrats as shifting toward the GOP, indicating Republican challengers could potentially gain footing.

The analysis comes as contentious races across the country have called into question which political party will gain control of the House and Senate in the midterms. With one week until election day, Republicans are favored to win the House, and it’s currently a “dead heat” for the Senate, according to FiveThirtyEight.

“The scariest Halloween reality for House Democrats is the number of seats President Biden carried comfortably in 2020 that are at genuine risk a week out,” David Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the Cook Political Report, wrote in an analysis.

One of the seats identified as a “toss up” in California by Cook Political is in District 47, where stand-out progressive Katie Porter, D-CA, is running for reelection. The district had been previously classified as “lean Democrat” by Cook.

The new analysis says Porter faces a “genuine risk” in her race, noting that recent polls show she is in a “dead heat” against GOP challenger Scott Baugh, a former state assemblyman. The seat, located in Orange County, voted for Biden in 2020 but has “plenty of GOP DNA,” the Cook analysis states, noting that 60% of the district is new to Porter after redistricting.

Cook analysts also identified two other seats that have shifted toward the GOP’s direction located in California’s 9th and 26th Congressional districts.

California’s 9th district, located in San Joaquin County and representing Stockton and Tracy, has shifted from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.” Incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Harder is running for reelection against Republican challenger Tom Patti, a member of the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors.

After redistricting, 74% of the Stockton area seat is new to Harder, and recent private polls indicate Patti could come within “striking distance of the incumbent,” according to Cook.

California’s 26th district, which encompasses Oxnard and Thousand Oaks in Ventura County, was historically rated as “solid Democrat,” but has shifted to “lean Democrat” in Cook’s latest analysis. Incumbent Democrat Rep. Julia Brownley is running for reelection in her region, which shifted five points right after adding the conservative Simi Valley, according to Cook.

Brownley is being challenged by former federal prosecutor Matt Jacobs, who is running as a Republican. He has outraised Brownley $2.2 million to $1.8 million, though Brownley is still projected to win, according to Cook analysts.