Golden Boy? New poll puts Trump in position to win all California delegates

A new poll taken this month and released Monday signals former President Donald Trump is in position to capture all California delegates to the Republican National Convention.

The state’s Republican Party changed rules last summer, and the 169 spots represent 14% of the total needed to win the national nomination. If a candidate secures more than half of the primary vote, he or she gets all the delegates. Under the old rules, candidates could win three delegates in each congressional district, allowing a more economical targeted campaign rather than going statewide.

California is part of Super Tuesday on March 5.

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, on Jan. 4-8 sampled 6,199 registered voters. This included a weighted subsample of 4,470 likely voters, with 1,351 deemed likely to vote in the primary, a UC Berkeley release says. The poll found 66% planned to vote for the former president, with 11% supporting former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (8%) and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy (3%) were also well back.

Eleven months ago, DeSantis polled ahead of Trump 37%-29%. Haley’s 11% capture is her best in this poll since it began in August 2022.

President Joe Biden won California’s 55 electoral college votes in 2020 and Democrat Hillary Clinton captured them in 2016. Republicans won them nine of 10 times from 1952 through George H.W. Bush’s election in 1988 and haven’t since.

There is significance in the potential head-to-head between Biden and Trump. When the two are paired with Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein, Biden leads Trump by 16 points. When it is only two, Biden leads Trump by 19.

In 2020, Biden was 30 points better than Trump.

The poll was nearly equally mixed on a view of Biden as favorable (50%) or unfavorable (48%). Trump, on the other hand, was clearly unfavorable (63%).

With so many Republicans supporting Trump, there was no surprise he scored well with voters who supported him four years ago (72%); strong conservatives (78%); Latino Republicans (77%); voters under age 40 (70%); and GOP voters in the Inland Empire (73%).