Poll: Gallego leading Lake in U.S. Senate race

New polling shows Ruben Gallego is leading in the race for Arizona U.S. Senator over Republican Kari Lake.

Since her loss in the 2022 race for governor, Lake has struggled to appeal to Independent and undecided GOP voters. Polling conducted by Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights has Gallego leading by seven points. The report also notes that Gallego has more support from the Democratic party than Lake has with the Republican party. Gallego has been able to lead among Independents as well.

“Lake also struggled to gain a definitive edge on many issues,” reads the NPI report. “Among all voters, she has a within-the-margin lead on only immigration and inflation – both issues on which Trump had a substantial edge over Harris. While Lake is trusted by a majority of Republicans on immigration (78%), her support wanes on other critical issues like climate change, where only 56% of Republicans trust her. This disparity highlights a broader problem for Lake: her inability to galvanize strong, across-the-board support from her base.”

The NPI poll of 1,003 registered Arizona voters was conducted Aug. 12–16, with a 3% margin of error.

A poll conducted by Fox News, under the direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research where a little over 1,000 Arizona voters were surveyed, has Gallego is leading by 13 points, with the Democrat at 48% and Lake at 46%.

It also looked at Arizonans preference in the presidential election, where Vice President Kamala Harris is leading over former President Donald Trump by just one point. They were also asked if they would vote for a ballot amendment to enshrine the right to abortion in the Arizona Constitution to which a majority of 73% said "yes."

In response to recent polls stating that Gallego is more likely to get elected, Lake’s campaign released a statement citing polls with closer margins and one, conducted by her own campaign, placed her ahead of Gallego.

“Recent polling data clearly shows that this race is neck-and-neck, with multiple surveys putting Kari Lake within the margin of error,” Lake said. “Any poll showing a large lead for either candidate is plainly out of step with Arizona’s electoral history and the current political landscape. We’re confident that as voters learn more about the stark contrast between Kari Lake’s proven leadership and Ruben Gallego’s record of far-left policies, they will choose the candidate who truly puts Arizona First.”

Despite never holding office, Lake widely polls as being a known personality thanks to her years as a local television anchor. Gallego, on the other hand, served in the Arizona House of Representatives from 2011-2013 and has been serving in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2015.

“Gallego is in a better position in this race. In our polarized world, it’s hard to imagine things going much better for him than they have in this past year,” said NPI Founder and CEO Mike Noble. “Lake clearly has room to grow with wayward Republicans and swing voters. The real question – is she the sort of candidate that can grow her support?”

Gallego and Lake have agreed to a televised debate that will take place on Wednesday, Oct. 9 at 6 p.m. PST.

Gallego’s office did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.