Poll says Maricopa County races ‘tight as a tick’

Maricopa County’s local races will be incredibly close this year with no clear winner in sight, according to a poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights.

The poll was conducted from Aug. 12-16, surveying 1,003 voters, 595 of which reside in Maricopa County, yielding a 4.02% margin of error.

There are four local Maricopa County races where candidates will be going head-to-head in which the polling found only about a 1-4% lead in each race – the county sheriff, county attorney, county assessor and county recorder’s races.

The Maricopa County sheriff candidates – Democrat Tyler Kamp and Republican Jerry Sheridan – receive the same amount of support, about 35% each, according to the poll. And, while Sheridan has won over more of his base, 76% of Democrats, to Kamp’s 69% of Republicans, Kamp has appealed to more Independent voters with 34% to Sheridan’s 22%.

County Attorney Republican candidate Rachel Mitchell has a two-point lead over Democratic candidate Tamika Wooten. However, Wooten seems to have more pull among Independents, with a 10-point lead over Mitchell.

The County Assessor race is also tight, with Democratic candidate Gregory Freeman leading Republican candidate Eddie Cook by three points. Additionally, both candidates have equal support among their base, about 76% support from each party for their respective candidates. However, Freeman does hold a 15-point lead among Independents, a crucial demographic as about 40% of Independent voters said they are unsure about this race.

The Maricopa County Recorder race has the largest gap among local races, but is still close with Democratic candidate Tim Stringham leading Republican candidate Justin Heap by only four points. Additionally, Stringham has a 15-point lead among Independent voters.

Independent and unsure voters will prove to be the deciding factor in Maricopa County’s races.

“These races are incredibly close,” said Mike Noble, NPI founder and CEO. “In each one, the leading candidate is ahead by a low single-digit margin. With a high number of undecideds and more than two months between fielding this poll and Election Day – this poll just doesn’t point to a clear winner. But historical data might tell us more.”

According to data from 2020 and 2022, Democrats have had an advantage among state and national elections, while Republicans have more of a chance in winning more local elections.

“Arizona is changing fast – but the state’s DNA is still Republican,” Noble said. “McCain Republicans, business moderates – the type of voters who might not like Trump but have a longstanding GOP loyalty and trust a competent local Republican – these voters have split their ticket in the past. They may do so again. Time will tell.”

While the state's U.S. Senate race has a clear frontrunner with Democrat Ruben Gallego holding a 12-point edge over Republican Kari Lake, the presidential race has less of a clear lead with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a three point lead over former President Donald Trump in the state.

“This razor-thin margin underscores Maricopa County’s crucial status in the upcoming election, where every vote could be pivotal,” reads the report. “Congressional races in the county also mirror the overall competitiveness of this upcoming election. When asked which party they will support when casting a vote for a member of Congress, Maricopa County voters are split with Democrats up by just 1 point, 43% to 42%.”

The only clear winner on Maricopa County’s ballot appears to be the renewal of Prop. 479, a half-cent sales tax that funds transportation projects in Maricopa County.

“It expires in 2025, and its renewal will be on the county’s ballot in November,” reads the NPI report. “Prop 479 has had majority support from Maricopa County voters for more than a year – and, notably, opposition to the renewal has not changed in the past year.”

This sales tax has been in place since 1985 and, according to the Maricopa Association of Governments, it is projected to bring in $14.9 billion in revenue after 20 more years.

Arizonans have been in support of Prop. 479 since July 2023 with a solid 64% of voters supporting the proposition for over a year.

“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up for a year on this proposition – campaigns for it have clearly worked, and Prop 479 is on the fast track to victory in November,” Noble said.

Other than Prop. 479, David Byler, NPI chief of research, noted that Maricopa County’s races are too close to call.

“There’s so much within the margin of error, it’s hard to pinpoint the decisive factors between races like Assessor and Sheriff,” Byler said. “Apart from Kari Lake’s race, these contests could all be in very similar positions.”