U.S. backing of war in Gaza sways swing-state Democrats while candidate Harris waffles, poll finds

While both major party presidential campaigns have maintained focus on domestic issues like the economy and immigration, swing state voters show a growing concern about U.S. involvement in Israel’s war on Hamas.

Recent polling from the Institute for Middle East Understanding, or the IMEU, shows that a quarter of swing state voters say the violence in the region is an important issue which will likely factor into their decision.

For these voters, it’s a moral issue. Israel’s bombardment has devastated the Gaza Strip, leaving the death toll at over 40,000.

On top of constant displacement from bombing campaigns which are largely conducted with US-made weapons, the civilian population in Gaza faces starvation and the proliferation of contagious diseases due to poor sanitation, including a resurgence of the polio virus.

According to the IMEU poll, in Pennsylvania, 36% of Democratic voters say they would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if Biden were to secure a ceasefire. Three percent would be less likely.

Asked whether pledging to withhold weapons from Israel would impact their vote, 34% said they would be more likely to vote for a nominee who did. Seven percent would be less likely.

The numbers are even higher in Georgia and Arizona, where 44% and 41%, respectively, would be more likely to vote for the Democratic nominee if Biden were to secure a ceasefire. Thirty-nine percent and 35% respectively would be more likely to vote for a candidate who pledged to withhold weapons from Israel.

“Not only are these policies popular, but they actually move voters from the ‘undecided’ or ‘not voting’ column and into the Democrats’ column in the states Democrats will need to win,” said IMEU Policy Project Executive Director Margaret DeReus.

Vice President Kamala Harris has publicly called for a ceasefire, but those who oppose the war are skeptical of her commitment to that position. On Tuesday, the Biden administration, of which she is the second in command, approved a $20 million weapons package to Israel.

The deal was made in the wake of a series of strikes on schools in Gaza by the Israeli military. Saturday’s strike killed at least 93 people, most of whom were women and children, during prayer at the Al-Tabi’in compound.

The bomb used was a Boeing GBU-39. Due to the nature of the bomb’s force, many of the bodies were left indistinguishable, a scenario that has been recurring throughout the strip since October. Family members of the victims collected plastic bags of anonymous body parts in order to bury their loved ones.

Critics on the right say Hamas intentionally sacrifices citizens to escape the attacks and further an anti-Israel narrative.

During the primaries, over 60,000 Democrats voted uncommitted in Pennsylvania as part of a campaign to protest Biden’s support for Israel, well exceeding the margin of votes former President Donald Trump secured to win the state in 2016.

Campaigns like Not Another Bomb and Pennsylvania’s No Ceasefire No Vote are encouraging voters to leverage their political power by demanding a policy change in exchange for their support.

For his part, Trump has called American protesters of the war “pro-Hamas thugs” and emphasized his hope that Israel “finish the job” as quickly as possible.

Pennsylvania’s congressional lawmakers scatter the political spectrum on Gaza policy; several Democrats back calls for a ceasefire and boycotted Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent state visit. Republicans stick to decades of pro-Israel policy and blame Hamas’s terroristic control over the Gaza strip for the ongoing bloodshed.

Gov. Josh Shapiro has been a strong critic of pro-Palestine protests on college campuses. His policy stance on the war in Gaza was rumored to be a breaking point for his chances of running alongside Harris on the presidential ticket.

Shapiro, for his part, has shot down the rumor, and others, about the decision.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the only Jewish candidate on the ballot, was arrested while protesting alongside students at Washington University in St. Louis earlier this year.