Poll: Wisconsin voter enthusiasm spikes, Independents shifting support to Harris

Less than five weeks out from Election Day, a new poll shows Wisconsin voters are increasingly excited to vote and Independents remain persuadable over candidate choice, unlike their Democrat and Republican counterparts.

Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead former president Donald Trump among Wisconsin voters overall, partly due to a favorable shift in Independent’s views, according to Marquette Law School’s October poll released Wednesday.

“With Independents, you see that they were favoring Trump through the period when Biden was the candidate. They still favored Trump in the first poll with Harris, but then these last two have bumped up to 60, or a little above 60, percent of Independents going for Harris,” Director of the MLS poll Charles Franklin said. “They could still change their minds, [or a] sampling error could still play a role here, but seeing it twice in a row is worth noting.”

The poll, conducted Sept. 18-26, interviewed 882 registered voters and 798 likely voters in Wisconsin. The partisan makeup included 34% Republicans, 32% Democrats, and 34% Independents.

Harris’ current 4-point lead, with 52% of both registered and likely voters supporting Harris and 48% of them choosing Trump in a head-to-head matchup, is also consistent with MLS’s September poll.

In a multiway ballot, Harris also receives 4 percentage points more than her opponent. Both results fall within the poll’s +/-4.4 margin of error.

Enthusiasm continues to tick upward among Democrats and Republicans, but the poll also noticed a sharp increase in the enthusiasm of Independents since September, nearly 20%, who usually remain the most pessimistic statistically.

Favorability ratings have hardly budged, with Harris at net -4, Trump at net -11, Trump’s running-mate Sen. J.D. Vance at -13, and Harris’ running mate Gov. Tim Walz at a net +7.

When polled on how well certain phrases describe the candidates, registered voters’ perceptions of both candidates have remained relatively stable across the past three months, with Trump garnering mostly negative views.

The majority of respondents think Trump is too old to lead and has behaved more corruptly and dishonestly than Harris. They also perceive Harris as having a better temperament to lead and higher intelligence than Trump. But Trump still outranks Harris on the issues of strong accomplishments, and the two are nearly dead even on perceptions of strong leadership.

Voter opinions on who would do a better job on political issues have also remained the same, with the majority believing Trump would handle immigration and border security, the economy, foreign relations, and the Israel-Hamas war–though 22% believe neither candidate would handle the latter issue well. Harris scores much higher on the issues of Medicare and Social Security, healthcare, and abortion policy.

The economy, immigration, and abortion remain the top issues for Wisconsinites, and the majority still believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

MLS will conduct one more state poll before the November election, to be released Oct 30.