Polls: Kennedy exit could impact New Hampshire

Rumor mills are churning that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. may suspend his campaign and endorse former President Donald Trump, potentially creating a close race in New Hampshire.

A recent Granite State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Trump 50%-43% and Kennedy at 4%, with a margin of error of just over 2%. The state has four electoral college votes.

The last time New Hampshire was won by a Republican was 2000, when then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush won the state 48%-46% against then-Vice President Al Gore.

The last time a Republican candidate nearly edged out a Democrat in a presidential election in New Hampshire was in 2016, when former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ran against Trump. Clinton narrowly beat Trump 46.8%-46.5%.

President Joe Biden beat Trump 52%-45% in 2020.

Harris is underperforming against Biden's numbers at the same time of the 2020 race. By the third week in August, the average polling margin lead for Biden was 9 points according to cumulative averages from polling group 538. By Election Day, Biden led by 11% in polls.

Throughout 2020, multiple Granite State polls had Biden leading Trump by as much as 19 points by the last week of October, according to an American Research Group poll. During that same period, polls by Saint Anselm College Survey Center and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center had Biden leading by eight points. Each of the three polls had Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen at 1%.

Jorgensen ended up leveraging just 1.6% on Election Day, nearly on target to where polls projected.

Since polls began surveying a Harris candidacy the second week of July, the vice president has yet to poll beyond seven points above Trump. Harris is averaging at 4.9% above the former president between 10 polls conducted between July and the present, according to 538.

It remains unclear if a Kennedy campaign suspension and endorsement of Trump would move the needle in Trump's direction. However, between historical averages and a potential Kennedy bump, New Hampshire could again be in play come November.