Republicans fired up in North Carolina as historic numbers turn out

As of Monday morning, the record-setting march to the polls continued in North Carolina with nearly 3 million votes already cast.

A historic number of those voters are Republicans, who have had a higher turnout than Democrats. This has never happened before in the state.

According to a daily report released by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 960,000 Republicans have voted, while 940,000 Democrats have voted.

This means that Republicans have had a 41% turnout of registered voters compared to the Democrats’ turnout of 38%. Republicans have also made up a higher percentage of the total ballots cast at 34%, though Democrats are just behind at 33%.

With only eight days remaining until Election Day, experts have pointed out that this is a significant change from the past two elections.

“At this point in 2020, Democrats led the mail and early vote by about ten points. In 2022, they led by about eight points,” said Tim Saler, the chief data consultant at Grassroots Targeting, in a memo.

Part of that switch is likely a change in messaging from Republican leadership. While historically encouraging Election Day voting, this election, former President Donald Trump has called for Republicans to “swamp the vote” and make the election “too big to rig.

“Unaffiliated” voters also make up a significant voting block in North Carolina, coming in at 38% of all registered voters. As of Monday morning, unaffiliated voters had seen a 30% turnout, making up 32% of all the votes cast.

With 7.8 million total registered voters in the state, that means 36% of voters have already submitted their ballots, either through early or absentee voting. That is 1.2 million more votes cast than in 2016 at this same point.

In 2020, there was a sharp rise in the number of voters casting ballots by mail, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so total numbers for 2024 are lagging behind 2020 slightly due to that.

“The 2020 election was conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a significant increase in voting by mail,” stated the report. “Absentee voting started later in 2024 due to a court decision requiring the removal of a candidate's name from the ballot.”

Saler pointed out what he believes is the “minimal impact” of Vice President Kamala Harris’ early voting efforts.

“The biggest and most important turnout day for the Harris campaign during North Carolina . . . early voting has come and gone with minimal impact on the electorate,” he said, referring to the Harris campaign’s Sunday voter mobilization effort.

Yet, Harris supporters remain confident in Harris’ chances of being the first Democrat to win the state since former President Barack Obama in 2008.

Trump continues to lead in the polls in North Carolina, leading the Project 538 polling average by 1.3%.