Retail group says holiday shopping sales to grow more slowly

The largest retail group in the country says it expects consumers to spend more this holiday season, but the growth in sales will be slower than last year.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) said its 2024 forecast shows winter holiday spending is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

A primary contributor of overall retail sales growth is expected from online shopping. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8% and 9% to a total of between $295 billion and $298 billion.

“Overall, the economy has been in a good place this year operating with solid footing, and the consumer, economy and the retail industry continue to benefit from that strength,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

NRF expects retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, some of which may have been pulled into October to support retailers’ holiday buying events this month.

Illinois holiday shopping numbers may be more difficult to predict. The state’s unemployment rate increased to 5.3% in September, one of the highest numbers in the country. That is compared to the U.S. unemployment rate of 4.2%.

The Illinois Flash Index, a reading of the state’s economy, remained unchanged in September from last month’s reading at 102. Any reading above 100 denotes growth.

Last holiday season, the small business network Allignable reported that 63% of small business owners in Illinois said they made less money in the 4th quarter of 2023 than the year before, leading to rent troubles in January.

One differentiating characteristic from last year’s holiday shopping season is that the shopping period between Thanksgiving and Christmas will be six days shorter, totaling 26 days.