Virginia poll shows tied gubernatorial race, nearly tied presidential race

(The Center Square) — Virginia’s current political contests could hardly be closer, according to the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies Fall 2024 poll.

A little over a year out, the poll showed Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-07, and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the leading candidates for the commonwealth’s 2025 gubernatorial race, in a dead heat. When respondents were asked who they would vote for between the two “if the election were held today,” 39% indicated Spanberger, and 39% indicated Earle-Sears. Twelve percent didn’t know who they’d vote for.

The poll’s 1,000 respondents were also asked who they would vote for in a hypothetical—but possible—matchup between Spanberger and Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares, and they answered almost exactly the same: 40% went for Spanberger, and 39% went for Miyares.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin cannot run again, as governors are limited to one consecutive term in Virginia (he could run again in the commonwealth’s next gubernatorial race as former Gov. Terry McAuliffe did in 2029). Miyares has not declared, but like the Lt. Gov.’s office, the Office of Attorney General is a common platform to run for governor.

However, when asked if they approve of Earle-Sears’ or Miyares’ time in office so far, close to half of those surveyed (47% and 48%, respectively) didn’t know enough about either candidate to answer decisively one way or another. Job approval for Spanberger wasn’t surveyed.

“The big challenge for these potential candidates is becoming better known across the commonwealth,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at the university and the center’s director.

The poll also showed Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump nearly tied, at 47% and 46%, though other polls have reflected as much as a 10-point spread between them.

Another difference between this poll and others is Youngkin’s approval rating. Forty-six percent of those surveyed said they approved of his performance as governor, compared to 36% who disapproved. Other prominent polls have consistently shown Youngkin with a minimum 50% approval rating in recent months, and he obtained a 59% all-time-high approval rating just last month in a Roanoke College poll.

The survey “included a total of 1,000 Virginia residents… consisting of 870 registered voters and 774 likely voters…The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.1%, while the margin of error for likely voters is +/- 4.1%,” according to the center.