Polls show shrinking support for Newsom as recall election looms

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is losing support in his bid to keep his job ahead of the Sept. 14 recall election, recent polling shows.

A poll from Survey USA and the San Diego Union Tribune found that 51% of Californians are in favor of his recall and 40% are against it in a state where more than 48% of voters are registered Democrats.

In another poll, 58% of likely voters said they didn’t want Newsom to run for governor in 2022.

The polls show a marked shift since a July poll was conducted by The University of California, Berkeley, and the Los Angeles Times, which found that 36% of respondents said they would vote to recall Newsom and 51% said they would vote to keep him in office.

One of the primary reasons those polled cite for recalling Newsom is increased crime in the state. The majority polled, 65%, said they think crime is getting worse compared to 29% who say it is the same or diminishing. The poll was conducted among 1,000 likely voters by David Binder Research, a San Francisco pollster who has worked on the presidential campaigns of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Another reason cited to recall Newsom is his response the state’s growing homeless crisis after more than $1 billion in taxpayer money has been spent to address it. In another poll, 41% of Democrats surveyed gave Newsom a "D" or "F" grade for his job on homelessness. California currently has an estimated homeless population that exceeds 180,000 people.

Other reasons cited by those supporting the recall include the economy, joblessness, and the state’s unemployment claims process through which billions of dollars of payments went to inmates in prisons in and out of California while thousands of residents with valid claims have still not received payments filed many months ago.

Despite the shift in polls, CNBC reports, “The odds may seem to be in Newsom’s favor, especially as registered Democrats far outnumber Republicans in the state, and money raised by supporters of the recall are dwarfed by the governor’s nearly $47 million war chest.”

Counties are also sending out ballots by mail to every registered voter in California regardless if they asked for one or not, boosting chances for people to vote who may not otherwise head to the polls.

Newsom’s campaign ads against the recall have blanketed radio, television and online outlets, including one featuring U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who claims “Trump Republicans” are behind the recall, in an effort to motivate Democrats to vote.

Referring to Republicans, Warren says in the ad, “They’re coming to grab power in California, abusing the recall process and costing taxpayers millions.”

The California Labor Federation has also played a key role in the anti-recall campaign by organizing volunteer canvassing efforts and rallies throughout the state in support of Newsom.

Steven Maviglio, a longtime political consultant in California and former press secretary to recalled California Gov. Gray Davis, told Yahoo News, "I would expect an all-star cast of Democrats from the president on down to be involved before it's over; it's too much at stake."

Maviglio also suggested that President Joe Biden should come to California to express his support for Newsom, the governor of the largest state.

Newsom, Maviglio says, “delivers a lot of money to Democratic candidates. And it would be a real blow on the virtual eve of the 2022 elections to have a major upset in California of all places."

If a Republican were to win the recall, Maviglio argues, it would bring "a fundamental shift" to the national political landscape.

Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., which provides voter data to campaigns, added, "The reality is that if the governor is recalled, that's going to send shockwaves through Democrats running for Congress and legislature and governor in other states."