A growing number of Americans think the worst of coronavirus is behind us

29% of voters think the worst of coronavirus is over, but that small number may show an increase in optimism among Americans.

Full transcript: 

Scott Rasmussen  0:07  

Good morning, Scott Rasmussen here. Welcome to my podcast, Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day. You know, we launched this podcast just a couple of days ago, I've been writing a number of the day feature for more than three years, it's published every morning at Ballotpedia, the Encyclopedia of American politics. And obviously, when you do it in a podcast form, it takes a little bit of a different approach than we do in the Ballotpedia version. But the idea is the same. We want to take a number, a number that I find interesting, and use it to explore the world around us. What does it tell us about 21st century America? So today, the number that we're going to pick comes from a Ballotpedia survey. The number is 29. 29% of voters nationwide believe that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is behind us now, that number may sound a little pessimistic not all that many people are convinced we've, we've had the problem, we put the problems behind us. But if you take a little deeper look at the number you see there's a growing sense of optimism in America now, whether it will continue and how far it will go, that remains to be seen. But when I come back after these messages, we're going to talk about how that number of the day, the fact that 29% of voters think the worst of the pandemic is behind us, how that leads me to believe there's growing optimism in America. I'll be right back.

Scott Rasmussen  1:41  

Welcome back to Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day. The number we're looking at today is 29. 29% of voters say the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is behind us. I'm gonna make the case that this is really a sign of growing optimism in America and look, I understand that 29% doesn't sound like a very big number, and by the way, it's, you know, it's not. But if I go back to polling that we conducted in mid-April, twice as many people now have that optimistic view that the worst is behind us. Still 42% a larger number, say no, no, no, the worst is yet to come. So we have this dynamic where 29% say it's the worst is behind us; 42% say it's still to come. And yet, I believe that suggests a little bit of optimism. And as we go through this, I know numbers are difficult to follow sometimes and difficult to talk about. So, rather than bombard you with a whole range of detailed demographics, I want to let you know you can go find the specifics at ballotpedia.org on the Number of the Day or go to ScottRasmussen.com. We publish the cross tabs; the information is there for you. 

Scott Rasmussen  2:53  

The first cross tab that we can look at today deals with a gender gap. Women, by a two to one margin, are pessimistic. They say no, the worst is still the come, men: pretty evenly divided. Now, this is something I've seen before in consumer confidence data. A lot of times no matter what the question is, women make a more pessimistic assessment of the future. So, men are a little more upbeat in their nature; Women are a little more pessimistic. I don't know why that's the case, but we see it time and time again in the numbers. So, when we start to look at this and think of it in that context, there's something else very similar conceptually to consumer confidence data. When people hear bad news on the economic front, instantly, consumer confidence falls. I remember a couple of years ago when gas prices were a big issue. You know, the price of gasoline would spike one day and consumer confidence would fall the next. If the price of gasoline fell a week later, confidence wouldn't budge. It would take month after month of good news about gas prices before people regain their confidence. And I think the reason it makes sense, people were waiting for the other shoe to drop. Yeah, yeah, it's good that we had another good week. It's good that prices stay down, but boy, I remember that that big hit to my budget a couple of months ago. I'm waiting for it to happen again. Some of that, I think, is what we're seeing in this question about the pandemic: is the worst behind us? Yeah, more people are saying 'yes.' But, there's still a hesitancy. We don't know enough. Will there be a second wave? What's going to happen? But it's important to recognize that when you ask people about things getting better or worse, it's a bit of a lagging indicator. You know, in the economic front, four years after the last recession ended, most Americans said we're still in a recession. That pessimism, they can't quite get it out of their system. And I think, you know, a couple years from now, we're still gonna have people saying we're waiting for the next wave of the pandemic to hit. That's human nature. 

Scott Rasmussen  5:03  

If you look a little differently or look a little deeper into the numbers, there's another thing that points to some optimism. And again, this will sound a little crazy at first. Right now, a majority of Republicans say, yeah, the worst is behind us and a majority of democrats say, no, it's not, the worst is still to come. Independents kind of in between, they're a little bit pessimistic, but not nearly so much as the democrats. This too, is something we've seen in all kinds of consumer confidence polling. When your team is in charge, you feel more optimistic. So what this means, by the way, is if Joe Biden were to win the presidency in November, the morning after, democrats would be much more likely to say the worst of the pandemic is behind us and republicans would say, no, the worst is still to come. But within this partisan data, you know, and again, no matter how you want to look at it, the partisan biases are always there. What we see is republicans are a whole lot more optimistic than they were a couple of months ago. Now, you can't really say democrats are more optimistic. I mean, after all, most of them still think the worst is yet to come. But the number of democrats, the share of democrats who say the worst is still ahead of us, has fallen dramatically. The number of independents has done the same thing. So, you've got republicans getting much more optimistic, democrats and independents getting much less pessimistic. That's a positive trend. And I think as a lagging indicator, we're going to continue to see this number grow. Unless there is a you know, a dose of bad news. I mean, look, if we have another outbreak of the pandemic, if there is a second wave and it looks anything like the first, you're gonna see confidence in the economy, confidence in whether we're dealing with the situation well, just tank. But, absent that, it seems reasonable that as people feel better, they're getting outside, more than lockdowns are coming to an end, you know, there's a sense maybe not ever return to normalcy, but at least that we're no longer descending into something that is even more abnormal. So, as these things happen, I expect that optimism will continue to increase. How will it translate in the political world? I don't know. You know, this is unprecedented and uncharted territory. And the pandemic, while it was a stunning issue when it broken on the scene a few months ago. It's no longer the only issue out there for us. We have now the questions of racial justice and you know, some people are calling for defunding the police and others are saying this is ridiculous. So, there are other issues coming into play. But I do believe, generally speaking, that as the as optimism grows, about the pandemic, as more and more people come to believe that the worst is behind us and we're beginning to open the economy. That's probably good news on balance for President Trump and the republicans. Don't know if it's enough. I mean, our latest polling shows the president is down by 10 points to Joe Biden. But if this trend continues, it will be, it will have a positive impact on the GOP prospects. Now, I'm hoping that you'll take the time, whether you're optimistic or pessimistic, to subscribe to Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day. You can do it at JustTheNews.com or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. And I'm going to be back with some some additional thoughts on this indicator, the idea that optimism is likely to keep growing even though the number of the day doesn't sound all that great. I'll be back with those thoughts right after these messages.

Scott Rasmussen  8:53  

Welcome back to Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day. The number today was 29. 29% of voters believe the worst of the pandemic is behind us. And while it may seem a bit counterintuitive, you know, 29% isn't a huge dose of optimism, I tend to think it suggests, if you look at the trends and other factors, that America is beginning to grow more optimistic. We're moving in a more positive direction. One reason is it looks very similar to data that we see in consumer confidence numbers where it's a lagging indicator. People, you know, look, the coronavirus was a huge hit to the confidence of the nation. It terrified many people, still terrifies many people. It was a huge hit on the economy. So the idea that you're the worst is behind us is something that's really hard to admit. Still, we're seeing a growing number of people taking that position and a, and it's a growth. Republicans are a lot more optimistic, democrats and independents a lot less pessimistic. So, in some sense, it is across the board. And look that partisan divide, you'll never get over no matter who the President is, no matter what's going on. As we look to the future, the thing to watch here, I think, is going to be how quickly this confidence grows up. It's not the fact that 29% think the worst is behind us today. It's what will that look like in a month, in two months, when that begins to get to the 40-45% range, when you begin to reach parody, whereas many people are saying it's behind us is still to come. I think that's when you'll begin to see a real change in the public mood, in terms of how we've handled this pandemic. Once again, I'm Scott Rasmussen. Every morning at 8 a.m. ET, we release a new number of the day, and I hope that you'll sign up and subscribe. I also, by the way, would encourage you to go to Ballotpedia. They're documenting America's path to recovery. They're following all of the news on this topic, whether it's the legal issues of who's opening what, where, or anything else, so go to Ballotpedia. Find out the underlying substance of what's happening as we recover from this pandemic. And subscribe to Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day. Look forward to chatting again tomorrow. Have a great day.