Polls in Missouri GOP Senate race show Schmitt, Greitens ahead with Trump voters

The contentious Missouri Senate race is heading into nail biter territory with the primary 7-days out.

Updated: July 26, 2022 - 1:33pm

The Facts Inside Our Reporter’s Notebook

In the days leading up the hotly contested Missouri GOP Senate primary, state Attorney General Eric Schmitt appears to be ahead of former Gov. Eric Greitens, according to a poll from Emerson College released Tuesday.

However, an internal poll from the Greitens campaign shared with Breitbart News indicated that 62% of Trump voters polled in a recent survey said they are voting for the candidate in the upcoming election.

According to the Emerson poll, 33% very likely GOP primary voters said they are planning on casting ballots for Schmitt, while 21% said they're voting for Rep. Vicky Hartzler, and 16% said they are voting for Greitens. 

About 17% of likely voters say they remain undecided, while Rep. Billy Long is averaging 5% of support. Mark McCloskey and Dave Schatz are respectively polling at 4% ad 2%. The poll's margin of error is +/-3 percentage points. 

For much of the contentious campaign, a majority of polls have shown Greitens leading the pack, though massive ad spends from opposition-aligned PACs appear to have been effective in depressing Greitens' numbers and boosting those of Schmitt and Hartzler. 

The Greitens campaign has faced a number of setbacks in recent months, perhaps most notably an accusation of abuse from Greitens' ex-wife, Sheena Greitens, who is in the midst of a custody battle with her former husband.

In June, the former governor's campaign also released a video depicting Greitens, a former Navy SEAL, going "RINO hunting," in other words coming after "Republicans in Name Only."

The video was widely viewed and criticized by those who say it promotes violence against political opponents. It was also censored by several Big Tech platforms including Facebook and Twitter.

Greitens has campaigned as a through-and-through MAGA candidate and the internal poll shared with Breitbart suggests voters understand as much. While a majority of Missouri Trump voters say they will vote for Greitens, the former president has yet to officially endorse any candidate in the Aug. 2 primary. 

Trump recently explicitly said he would not be endorsing Hartzler – who has been endorsed by the state other senator, Josh Hawley (R), as well as outgoing Sen. Roy Blunt (R) – and floated the idea of endorsing Rep. Billy Long, but will likely go in a different direction due to his slump in the polls. 

Missouri is now a solidly conservative state that the former president carried by more than 15 points during the last election, the Senate seat is considered relatively safe, though some national Republicans have expressed concern about how Democrats would handle Greitens' history of scandals during a general election.