Gallego up 4 points over Lake in pivotal Arizona Senate race: poll

Democratic Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego, the party's likely nominee for Senate in 2024, holds a modest lead over Republican candidate Kari Lake, according a recent survey.

Neither candidate has yet won their party primary, though both are generally expected to win those contests. A recent Emerson College survey reveals that in a potential matchup, Gallego leads with 44% to Lake's 40% among Arizona voters. A further 16% were undecided.

When that bloc was asked to choose, however, the race narrowed to 51% for Gallego and 49% for Lake.

The race had previously been complicated by the uncertain candidacy of incumbent independent Sen. Krysten Sinema, though she confirmed earlier this month that she would not seek reelection. Sinema initially won her seat in 2018 as a Democrat, but later left the party.

"With Sinema off the ballot, independent voters break toward Gallego, 42% to 38%," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said. "Voters under 40 break for Gallego 44% to 30%, while voters aged 40 to 59 break for Lake. Those in their 60s are split: 47% for Gallego and 46% for Lake, and those over 70 turn back to Gallego, 50% to 45%."

Arizona is a critical battleground in both the battle for the Senate and the presidency. The state appears more favorable for the GOP in the latter contest, however, as Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden 48% to 44% in the same survey.

Conducted March 12-15, the survey question 1,000 registered voters and has a credibility interval of +/- 3%.

Ben Whedon is an editor and reporter for Just the News. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter.