Transgenderism looms large as issue, prominent pollster predicts it could swing Senate races to GOP

Prominent pollster Scott Rasmussen says the issue of transgenderism with biological men playing in biological women's sports could move voters in swing states to the right. 

"We now have colleges forfeiting their games rather than play against transgender athletes," Rasmussen said on the "Just the News, No Noise" TV show. "So the issue has some general impact."

Over the past few weeks, multiple schools have canceled womens' volleyball matches against San Jose State due to the team having a transgender player on the team who had been seen spiking balls into the faces of the opposing team during matches, according to Fox News.

This issue has come up in schools all over the country from Loudoun County, Virginia, to Leon County, Florida with minors "identifying" as transgender and creating an ongoing conflict between the schools and parents.

Rasmussen said that this issue could particularly impact Senate races in swing states. 

"Where I'm starting to see it is in Senate races," he said. "We see it playing out in the Texas Senate race, in Wisconsin and in Michigan."

During the Texas Senate debate earlier this week, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz clashed with his Democratic opponent Rep. Colin Allred on the issue of transgenderism. Cruz accused Allred of backing legislation that would lead to boys playing in girls sports, stating, "Congressman Allred was an NFL linebacker. It is not fair for a man to compete against women."

Allred denied Cruz's claims, calling them "laughable," according to NBC News. Over the weekend, The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece arguing that that transgender women in women's sports is going to be a sleeper issue for the upcoming election. "This year one sleeper issue is progressive transgender coercion, which is playing against Democrats in races across the country," the article reads.

According to the opinion piece, Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio., Jon Tester, D-Mo., and Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., have taken hits for votes regarding transgender women in women's sports. Ohio, Wisconsin and Montana are all competitive Senate states and the transgender issue could be one of the hot button topics that makes voters lean to the right. 

Not entirely unrelated, the Democratic senatorial candidates may be hamstrung at the top of their ticket: Vice President Kamala Harris, in her failed 2019 bid, then-Sen. Harris was asked by the ACLU: Would she use her executive authority as president to ensure that inmates — including those in prison and immigration detention — would have access to “comprehensive treatment associated with gender transition, including all necessary surgical care?”

She said "yes."

"I would go so far as to say if the Republicans pull off an upset, and it would be an upset to win the seats in either Michigan or Wisconsin....that's an issue that will have had a big role to play in it," Rasmussen said.