RealClearPolitics predicts Tudor Dixon to win Michigan governorship over Gretchen Whitmer

Democrat's lead has greatly shrunk relative to first campaign.

Updated: October 21, 2022 - 2:56pm

The Facts Inside Our Reporter’s Notebook

Polling aggregator RealClearPolitics on Friday projected a surprise win for Michigan Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon next month, predicting a loss for Democratic incumbent Gretchen Whitmer in what could be a foreboding sign of things to come for Democrats during the midterms. 

On RCP's rundown page of the Michigan governor's race this year, the outfit lists its prediction for that race as a "GOP Pick Up," noting that its adjusted poll average by Friday had Dixon herself up by nearly three polling points. 

RCP's metrics indicate that its unadjusted average has Whitmer polling at a three-point advantage; by this time during her 2018 election bid she was polling at a near 10-point advantage. 

Whitmer in polling over the last several months had consistently enjoyed double-digit leads on Dixon, but that advantage began to drop quickly around the beginning of October, particularly as inflation continued to grind down voters and Democrats continued to take major heat for the country's ongoing economic woes. 

Not every outlet, meanwhile, gives Dixon the same chances; FiveThirtyEight, for instance, puts Whitmer's chances of holding onto her seat at roughly 90%.