Two election forecasters shift more than a dozen House races in favor of Republicans

The political environment continues to favor the GOP ahead of November.

Updated: April 20, 2022 - 1:19pm

Two election forecasters have shifted over a dozen 2022 House races in total in favor of the GOP, the latest indication that Democrats should prepare for a considerable loss in November.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Wednesday swung eight House races in districts from New York to Nevada in favor the GOP. Several "likely" Democratic districts in New York, North Carolina, and Indiana were downgraded to "lean" Democratic. Three more districts, two in Nevada and one in Virginia, are now toss-ups. One district in New Jersey and one in New York are now "likely" Democratic; they were formerly "solid" Democratic areas.

All but two of the districts identified by Cook are held by Democrats running for reelection, with Reps. Kathleen Rice (N.Y.-4) and G.K. Butterfield (N.C.-1) retiring from their seats.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, out of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, also shifted 11 House districts in Republicans' favor, citing some overlaps with the Cook Political Report.

The Crystal Ball, however, also swapped statuses of a handful of Republican-held seats in Illinois, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas toward GOP candidates. 

The UVA apparatus additionally said both political parties have managed to raise impressive amounts of funding in the first quarter, "but that there are plenty of Republican House incumbents and challengers who are also doing fine or better than fine on the money front."

To recapture the lower chamber in November, Republicans must win a net total of just five seats. The political party not in controlled of the White House, which is now the Democrats, historically loses seats in the ensuing congressional races.

And such issues as inflation, an increase in violent crime and President Biden's low voter-approval numbers amid his response to the Russia-Ukraine war, are creating additional midterm headwinds for Democrats. 

Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, recently wrote that the "main question" about the House is not if Republicans will flip the chamber, but "how big the Republicans' eventual majority will be." Though, he added, "We would not completely shut the door on Democrats' retaining control if the political environment improves markedly."