A ‘Harris Honeymoon’?: First wave of polls suggests VP fares little better than Biden

With Vice President Kamala Harris poised to assume the top position on the Democratic ticket in November, Republican analysts have warned of a likely polling bump in her favor as the media rushes to whitewash her record and prop her up, but the first round of polling on her candidacy suggests she would fare little better than President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump.

Biden on Sunday announced that he would not seek reelection and ultimately endorsed Harris to succeed him. She subsequently received the support of major Democratic leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. This week, moreover, she appeared to secure the support of enough delegates to clinch the party nomination and she has yet to face a challenger for the slot.

Her evident ascension as the Democratic nominee has the Trump camp forecasting a so-called “Harris Honeymoon” in which the legacy media would attempt to promote polls showing Harris either beating or faring well against the Republican nominee.

“As I’ve explained, the honeymoon will be a manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the MSM,” Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio warned in a memo this week. “The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term.”

“Given what has happened over the past couple of days and her impending VP choice, there is no question that Harris will get her bump earlier than the Democrat’s Convention,” he insisted. “And that bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last a while until the race settles back down.”

Fabrizio went on to assert that he expected such a bump to subside after voters adjusted to her ascension as a candidate and that the Democratic swap-out would not alter voter sentiment on specific issues.

“So, while the public polls may change in the short run and she may consolidate a bit more of the Democrat base, Harris can’t change who she is or what she’[s] done. Stay tuned,” he concluded.

But with most of the week passed and the first round of post-Biden-announcement polls going public, Harris does not appear to have enjoyed quite as meaningful a bump as Fabrizio expected as of yet.

Overall, her current job approval stands at 38.7% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, while 52.0% disapprove of her. Notably, that metric includes only two surveys with polling periods that stretch beyond Biden’s decision not to seek reelection.

At the top level, moreover, Harris trails Trump in a head-to-head matchup by an average 2.1%, with Trump earning 47.8% support to Harris’s 45.7%. That metric includes four polls with survey periods entirely following Biden’s announcement. By contrast, Trump led Biden by 3.1% in the latest matchups, earning 47.9% support to his 44.8%.

In a five-way race including the Green Party’s Jill Stein and independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, Trump led by 3.5%. That metric included three surveys with polling periods stretching past Biden’s announcement.

Following Biden’s announcement, moreover, a wave of Trump v. Harris polls have shown the former president leading the incumbent vice president, albeit by varying margins. One notable exception was a Reuters/Ipsos survey showing Harris with a 44% to 42% lead.

That survey, however, appears to be an outlier. On the other end of the spectrum is a Rasmussen Reports survey showing Trump with a seven-point lead over Harris, earning 50% support among likely voters to her 43%.

At a closer look, Trump appears to enjoy a significant electoral advantage. A survey of swing states from Emerson College/The Hill released on Thursday showed the Republican winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania while tying Harris in Wisconsin.

Trump led Harris in Arizona by 5%, in Georgia by 2%, in Michigan by 1%, and in Pennsylvania by 2%. In Wisconsin, the pair earned 47% support each.

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement. “Harris’s numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

Conducted July 22-23, the survey questioned 800 respondents each in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan and has a margin of error for those states of +/- 3.4%. It further surveyed 850 respondents in Pennsylvania and had a margin of error of +/- 3.3% there. In Wisconsin, it questioned 845 respondents and had the same margin of error.

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin collectively account for 73 electoral votes and are likely to prove the decisive battlegrounds in the 2024 election.

The Hill’s Decision Desk currently assigns Trump an overall 2.0% lead, with the Republican claiming 47.7% support to Harris’s 45.7%.

A CNN poll released this week appeared to highlight the groups where Harris had gained ground over Biden, most notably younger voters, voters of color, and women. In that survey, which showed Trump leading 49% to 46%, Harris saw higher enthusiasm among those blocs than Biden did in June.

Among voters under age 45 who backed Harris, 43% said their vote was more for her than against Trump while 28% of Biden backers said the same last month. Among her women backers, 54% said they supported her more than they opposed Trump while 43% of Biden-backing women said the same. For voters of color backing the vice president, 57% said their vote was more for Harris than against Trump, while 48% said that of backing Biden in June.

The Emerson/The Hill survey appeared to show a similar surge in support for Harris with younger voters, in particular.

“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: Her support increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month,” Kimball said.

At least one survey has shown some movement in Trump’s favor against Harris. An NPR/PBS/Marist poll saw Trump overcome a polling deficit against Harris to lead her by a 1% margin.

As of July 23, Trump led Harris 46% to 45%, with 9% undecided. Two weeks prior, however, Harris led 50% to 49% with only 1% undecided.

Ben Whedon is an editor and reporter for Just the News. Follow him on X.