Republicans gunning for governor's mansions, even in deep-blue states

While Republicans are poised to take control of the House of Representatives, and the Senate hinges on a set of tight contests, the GOP is mounting strong campaigns in state races to govern even Democratic bastions.

A host of traditional swing states — including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada — have tight gubernatorial races, and Republicans have managed to gain momentum in the left-leaning strongholds of New York, Oregon and Minnesota.

In New York, traditionally one of the bluest states in the country, the Democratic establishment has been rocked to its foundations by the resignation of former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and his replacement by now-Gov. Kathy Hochul. The former lieutenant governor, Hochul has been on the defensive over her administration's tight COVID-19 lockdown restrictions as well as mounting crime and rising inflation statewide.

Seeking to wrest control of the top job in the state, Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin has largely pointed to New York's economic and criminal woes. Bolstering his argument on crime, Zeldin himself was attacked during a campaign event after which the would-be assailant secured swift release from jail. He was later arrested on federal charges. Hochul is still favored to win, though the race is considered a toss-up.

Oregon presents a rare opportunity for a GOP pickup in a state that has not had a Republican governor since 1987. Republican Christine Drazan holds a narrow lead over Democrat Tina Kotek, in part due to the independent candidacy of former Democrat Betsy Johnson. Drazan has campaigned on fixing the educational issues caused by strict COVID-19 lockdowns, addressing the state's drug crisis, and stopping violent crime.

In Minnesota, a state that has not backed a Republican for president since Richard Nixon in 1972, Republican Scott Jensen trails incumbent Democratic Gov. Tim Walz by 4.3% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, though at least one Trafalgar Group survey shows the race tied at 46% support for each candidate. The race has become deeply personal, with the candidates trading heated insults in the final public debate.

Other tight contests include Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.

In Maine, former Republican Gov. Paul LePage hopes to reclaim his old job from incumbent Democratic Gov. Janet Mills. LePage left office in 2019 due to term limits after serving two terms.

Michigan ranks among the mostly closely watched gubernatorial contests. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has faced widespread criticism over her strict COVID-19 lockdown policies, including a plan that put COVID-19 patients in nursing homes early in the pandemic. Trump-backed Republican Tudor Dixon has leveled attacks against Whitmer with a particular focus on the damage the lockdowns did to students in the education system.

In Wisconsin, Republicans are eyeing a return to dominance in the state, with Trump-backed businessman Tim Michels aiming to oust incumbent Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. In 2018, Evers edged out his GOP opponent, then-Gov. Scott Walker, by a slim 1.2% margin. As governor, he has faced scrutiny for his own COVID-19 policies and rising crime in the state.

The Arizona GOP's Kari Lake, meanwhile, keeps gaining steam in her battle with Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. The Democrat's distribution of errant absentee ballots seemed to lend credence to the Republican's claims that the state is vulnerable to election fraud.

In Nevada, Republican gubernatorial candidate Joe Lombardo appears poised to unseat Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, with several polls showing the Republican leading outside of the margin of error.

Other battleground states include Pennsylvania, Georgia, Florida, Texas and New Mexico.

Whereas in the Senate race Dr. Mehmet Oz narrowly leads Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the gubernatorial contest appears to be more of an uphill battle for the GOP, with Democratic state Attorney General Josh Shapiro holding an apparently comfortable 8-point lead over Republican Doug Mastriano.

Georgia, formerly expected to be a close race, has moved firmly into the Republican camp. Incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp faces a rematch with Democrat Stacey Abrams, though he remains well ahead in the polls, and courts have rejected Abrams' legal complaints of voter suppression.

In a similar situation, Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis faces a reelection test after narrowly winning in 2018. Like Kemp, DeSantis is projected to widen his margin over his previous win, as he currently holds a commanding lead over Democrat Charlie Crist, himself a former Republican governor. DeSantis holds an average 12.1% lead in the increasingly Republican-leaning state.

Texas, meanwhile, is host to a contest between incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and former Democratic presidential candidate Beto O'Rourke. Abbott is widely expected to win the contest handily.

New Mexico has unexpectedly proven to be a close race, with Republican Mark Ronchetti narrowly trailing incumbent Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and pulling ahead in at least one survey. The state's electorate is heavily Latino, and Ronchetti could benefit from that demographic's wider swing toward the GOP.

In Oklahoma, GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt faces an unexpectedly tough reelection bid in one of the few states in which every county backed Trump in 2020. Though still expected to win against Democrat Joy Hofmeister, a slew of narrow polls have prompted the GOP to rush funding to the state to bolster the Republican. Hofmeister defected from the GOP to the Democrats in 2021 and currently serves as the state superintendent of public instruction.

Kansas presents one of several opportunities for a Republican pickup. The deep-red state uncharacteristically has a Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, who took office after narrowly defeating Republican Kris Kobach, who ousted incumbent Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer in the party primary in 2018. Republican Derek Schmidt seeks to unseat Kelly.

Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is leaving Maryland's top job due to term limits. The Republican primary to succeed him was a bitter contest during which Trump-backed Dan Cox triumphed over Hogan's own hand-picked successor. Cox is trailing in the polls against Democrat Wes Moore, who is expected to coast to victory.

A similar situation exists in Massachusetts. Republican Charlie Baker has governed the traditionally blue state, though Democrats are predicted to reclaim the governor's mansion as Trump-backed Geoff Diehl is trailing against Democrat Maura Healey.