Five states, including three battleground, move toward Trump after Biden debate

The nonpartisan Cook report moved Arizona, Georgia and Nevada from political toss-ups to "leaning Republican," and downgraded Minnesota and New Hampshire from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat."

Published: July 9, 2024 10:41pm

Updated: July 10, 2024 8:19am

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Tuesday made six changes to its Electoral College ratings, which appeared to favor former President Donald Trump.

Trump is currently leading President Joe Biden in a theoretical match up of the November election, but he was only leading a little over one point nationally before the presidential debate, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. But the former president is leading by three points nationally now.

The nonpartisan Cook report moved Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from political toss-ups to "leaning Republican," and downgraded Minnesota and New Hampshire from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat." A district in Nebraska, which is not a winner-take-all state, has also shifted from "likely Democrat" to "lean Democrat." 

Cook's editor-in-chief Amy Walters noted that although the ratings favor Trump, he remains approximately as unpopular as Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris. But she also noted that Biden has a steeper challenge in trying to sway voters because he has to prove he physically can.

"Biden’s weak debate performance calls into question whether he can effectively deliver that message to these already disenfranchised and skeptical voters," Walters wrote. “Biden’s challenge isn’t simply to convince voters that he can win, or that his policies are superior to Trump’s. He has to convince voters, including many in the anti-Trump coalition who supported him four years ago, that he is physically and mentally able to govern for another four years."

Biden previously won Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia in the 2020 presidential elections.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still remain toss-ups, according to the report, but Trump polls strongest in Pennsylvania, where he's currently leading Biden by five percentage points, according to RCP.

Misty Severi is an evening news reporter for Just the News. You can follow her on X for more coverage.

Unlock unlimited access

  • No Ads Within Stories
  • No Autoplay Videos
  • VIP access to exclusive Just the News newsmaker events hosted by John Solomon and his team.
  • Support the investigative reporting and honest news presentation you've come to enjoy from Just the News.
  • Just the News Spotlight

    Support Just the News