Poll: More than 40 percent of American adults believe there will be a U.S. civil war in next decade

Even significant numbers of Democrats believe as much.

Updated: August 31, 2022 - 12:55pm

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A high percentage of U.S. adults believe that the United States will descend into another Civil War at some point over the next decade, with considerable portions of Republicans, Democrats and Independents all expressing similar sentiments. 

An Economist/YouGov poll released this week asked respondents in part to "[look] ahead to the next 10 years" and consider "[how likely] it is that there will be a civil war in this country" over that time period. 

Among all respondents, 43% rated it as "very" or "somewhat" likely that such a conflict would occur. Twenty-two percent were unsure, while 24% thought it "not very likely." 

The responses held up across demographic breakdowns: Forty percent of "strong Democrats" thought it at least somewhat likely that a civil war would erupt sometime between now and 2032, while 39% of "not very strong Democrats" felt the same way, as did 40% of Independents. 

Among Republicans the responses were noticeably higher than other groups: Forty-five percent of "not very strong" GOP respondents projected a civil war in the next decade, while 54% of "strong Republicans" felt as much.

Those numbers track alongside opinions that political violence in the U.S. will increase in the next few years: Fully 62% of respondents in the poll said violence in the country will increase "over the next few years."


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