Republicans hold five point lead to keep House majority six months ahead of election: Poll

The Rasmussen poll found that 47% of Americans would vote Republican, and 42% would vote Democrat, while 10% remained undecided.

Published: May 22, 2024 10:13pm

Republicans are holding a five point margin to keep control of the House, according to a new poll released on Wednesday, with nearly half of voters claiming they would vote for the Republican candidate in their local races if the election was held today.

The Rasmussen poll found that 47% of Americans would vote Republican, and 42% would vote Democrat, while 10% remained undecided. The five-point lead is a one percent decrease from March, when 47% said they'd vote Republican and 41% said they'd vote Democrat. 

The poll also found that Republicans were more likely to stick with their party's candidate, with 88% claiming they would vote Republican if the election was today. Just 80% of Democrats said the same. Republicans also fare better among independent voters, with 40% leaning Republican and 36% leaning Democrat. Almost a quarter of them are still undecided. 

Republicans are also polling better among white and Latino voters, with 61% of Latino voters favoring Republicans. But 59% of black voters favor Democrats, and 44% of other minorities favor Democrats. Half of the white voters favor Republicans, while 41% favor Democrats.

The survey polled 1,092 likely United States voters from May 15-19 by phone and web, and had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. It also touted a 95% level of confidence. 

Respondents also favored deporting illegal immigrants rather than granting amnesty to them, and believed former President Donald Trump would be convicted by a New York jury in his hush money case. It did not ask whether they believed he was guilty.

The Facts Inside Our Reporter's Notebook

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