Trump beats Biden in post-trial poll showing most Americans see prosecution as political

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, former President Donald Trump would beat President Joe Biden by 2 percentage points, according to a new poll taken after a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records. 

Additionally, most voters, 51%, say that the prosecutions of Trump are politically motivated, according to a HarrisX poll released Friday.

In a head-to-head matchup, Trump and Biden are tied, but when placed alongside independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornel West, as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump comes out ahead, albeit within the poll's 3.1% margin of error. 

When considering all five candidates, as well as the people surveyed who said they were leaning towards a specific candidate, Trump comes in with 43%, Biden with 41%, Kennedy with 13%, West with 2% and Stein with 2%, per the poll. 

Trump's largest hurdle may be wooing independent voters, as he is behind Biden by as much as 9% by some metrics with the demographic. Additionally, even though most voters think the prosecutions of Trump are politically motivated, most voters – 57% – say he is "mostly guilty" of the crimes he has been charged with, including 60% of independents who say he is largely guilty.

This HarrisX poll was conducted with 1,006 registered voters from May 30-31. 

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