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Trump gains on Biden with young voters: Poll

The poll numbers also change based on certain external factors such as Trump's court cases and third-party candidates.

Published: April 18, 2024 8:53pm

Updated: April 18, 2024 8:55pm

Former President Donald Trump has lowered President Joe Biden’s lead in support from people under 30 compared to four years ago, according to a poll released Thursday.

During the 2020 presidential election, Biden led Trump by 23% among support from young people under 30, and held a 30-point advantage among likely young voters. In the latest survey from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, however, Trump came in just eight points behind Biden among young adults between the ages of 18 and 29, with Biden leading 45% to Trump’s 37%.

The other 16% of respondents were undecided. Among young adults who are likely to vote in the 2024 election, Biden's lead grew to a 19-point advantage. 

“Make no mistake, this is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things,” Harvard Polling Director John Della Volpe said in a statement. “Economic issues are top of mind, housing is a major concern — and the gap between young men’s and young women’s political preferences is pronounced.”

With respect to racial minorities, and female voters, Biden maintained significant leads of 43% and 33%, respectively. He also earned a boost from college-educated young voters, who favored him by 47 points over Trump. But the Republican only trailed Biden by three points among white voters, and six points among young men. The pair tied for young voters without college degrees.

The poll numbers also change based on external factors. For example, if Trump were convicted of a crime in any of his court cases then support for Biden among young people would rise by 10 points. But third-party candidates could bite into Biden's lead, including Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West. 

The survey questioned 2,010 Americans between the ages of 18-29 nationwide, and has a +/- 3.02% margin of error. The poll was conducted online from March 14-21.

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