President Donald Trump appears to have found his leverage against congressional Democrats for the upcoming budget battles in the form of the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Senate Democrats made an about face this week and supported a continuing resolution to keep the government funded at current levels until Sept. 30, despite its inclusion of $10 billion in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) funding and a $6 billion hike in defense spending.

After the House passed the provision earlier this week, Democrats initially refused to agree to anything proposed by Trump or the razor-thin GOP House majority, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., on Thursday told the conference that he would support the measure. That led to 10 Democrats joining with Republicans to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold. 

Why the reversal?

The turnaround came as Democrats voiced concerns over handing Trump too much power through a shutdown and as Elon Musk stoked fears that the government would simply permit a shutdown indefinitely to accomplish the goal of dramatically reducing the size of the government.

“For sure, the Republican bill is a terrible option. It is not a clean CR [continuing resolution],” Schumer said. “It is deeply partisan. It doesn’t address far too many of this country’s needs. But I believe allowing Donald Trump to take even much more power via a government shutdown is a far worse option.”

"They're concerned that if they do block that plan, there could be a prolonged government shutdown with disastrous consequences, giving Donald Trump even more power to shutter federal agencies,” CNN’s Manu Raju said.

Musk appeared to lend credence to some of Schumer’s concerns with his social media posting about how to manage a shutdown. “If the government shuts down, what if we just never brought most furloughed workers back?” asked White House correspondent Natalie Winters on X. Her rhetorical question went viral, with Musk himself responding with a contemplative emoji that appeared to signal his openness to the concept.

DOGE says it can justify steep cuts

Though Democrats agreed to the CR, DOGE’s presence will be a "sword of Damocles" hovering over the leftward side of the congressional aisle as negotiations gear up for the full-term budget bill. Republicans have expressed their plans to draft and pass all 12 yearly appropriations bills by Memorial Day, which should set the budget for fiscal year 2026.

DOGE has said it wants to cut as much as $2 trillion in wasteful spending to help balance the budget, though its efforts have faced legal hurdles, including from judges who have ordered their access to key data barred. This week, a federal district court judge ordered the reinstatement of thousands of fired federal probationary employees, though that ruling will likely face an appeal. At present, it claims an estimated $115 billion in savings.

On the Republican side, some lawmakers see DOGE as crucial for justifying steep cuts that are expected to appear in the next budget. “There are some people expressing concerns about Elon Musk and what he's doing with these agencies, but I applaud him, and I say, keep digging,” Rep. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, said on the “Just the News, No Noise” television show this week. 

“This is the first time you've had an administration, a president, you know, take a deep, deep dive and audit these agencies, many of these agencies, defense and everything, they can't even pass an audit.”

Round two

Republicans in the House and Senate have already passed initial budget blueprints for the following year, though they remain divided on planning. The House favors the Trump-preferred approach of “one big, beautiful bill” whereas the Senate has opted to include all of Trump’s border funding requests before addressing taxes. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., put the timeline for a final version at mid-May.

“All the indications are, the Senate is going to take up their, version of the reconciliation and finish that package off, completing it a week or so after the reconciliation comes out next week,” he said. “So we're talking two, three weeks out, and then you're going to have the conference committee on it. There's some resolution, and probably mid-May, maybe, if we're lucky, you get that reconciliation package completely done and out.”

With the new deadline coming on Sept. 30, it’s possible that Republicans will have their final version ready well ahead of time, giving Democrats plenty of time to mull the prospect of another shutdown. DOGE is expected to remain active well through that timeframe, moreover, and is sure to present a similar problem for Democrats mulling continued opposition.