Trump gains 17 points with Hispanics over 2020 numbers, Univision poll finds

Former President Donald Trump appears poised to significantly outperform his 2020 numbers with Hispanic voters in key battleground states, a recent survey has revealed.

In 2020, Trump took 32% of the Hispanic vote, compared to President Joe Biden's 65%. But the latest TelevisaUnivision survey shows Trump poised to take 39% of the Hispanic vote while Vice President Kamala Harris would take 55%, meaning the key voting bloc has shifted 17% in favor of Trump since the last election.

Conducted Sept. 17-22, the survey questioned 2,200 likely Hispanic voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Opiniones Latinas conducted the survey.

Nationwide, 45% of likely Hispanic voters identified as Democrats, compared to 22% who identified with the GOP, and 33% who said they were independents.

The survey further compared Trump's 2020 performance with that key bloc in each battleground with his current polling data against Harris in each state. In all the battlegrounds, save Michigan, Trump has gained considerable ground with Hispanics. In Nevada, for example, he has witnessed a 14-point swing.

In Arizona, he is up 13% over his 2020 performance. Trump is up 12% in Pennsylvania and up 9% in Georgia.

Potentially bolstering his performance are Hispanic voter attitudes toward the key issues. Twenty-six percent identified the economy/jobs as the most important issue, while a further 13% chose immigration and the border.

Just 12% said abortion or women's rights while only 1% chose climate change, both of which are traditionally strong drivers of Democratic voter support.

Voter perceptions of Harris and Trump were nearly inverted. Of Harris, 55% approved while 41% disapproved and 4% were unsure. By contrast, 43% approved of Trump while 56% disapproved and 1% were unsure.

Favorability figures were comparable. Fifty-eight percent held a favorable opinion of Harris while 39% held an unfavorable opinion and 3% had no opinion. Forty-one percent held a favorable opinion of Trump while 57% held an unfavorable opinion and 3% had no opinion.

The shift toward Trump among Hispanics notably does not appear to apply to down-ballot candidates. In Arizona, for instance, 42% broke for Trump compared to 35% who backed the GOP Senate candidate.

In Wisconsin, Trump took 38% while 33% backed the Republican Senate candidate. For Nevada, 33% backed the Republican in the Senate race while 39% backed Trump.

One exception was Michigan, where Trump was down 9% from his 2020 numbers and the Republican outperformed him by 1%. Trump took 35% in the Wolverine state while the Senate GOP candidate took 36%.