Tuesday evening’s primaries for Wisconsin governor are likely to set up a stark match between a relatively conventional Republican candidate and a progressive socialist with a history of extreme positions.

On the Republican side, Rep. Tom Tiffany is expected to become the nominee as he does not face a serious primary challenger. But the Democratic contest has been more crowded. Both Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes ran for the nomination, but have dropped out of the contest.

That leaves democratic socialist Francesca Hong, state Sen. Kelda Roys, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, and former state Administration Secretary Joel Brennan. Polling data has suggested that Hong is poised to take the nomination and will benefit from the withdrawal of the two lieutenant governors.

Hong has the endorsements of four different chapters of the Democratic Socialists of America, as well as a litany of other progressive groups and heavyweight left-wing figures such as Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar, of Minnesota, and Ro Khanna, of California.

Her campaign has seen her wrestle with blowback over several of her past policy positions and public comments. Earlier this month, conservative media highlighted an old social media post in which she called for the abolition of Thanksgiving.

"Cancel Thanksgiving. Should have done this in 1621,” she said. "If it takes a worldwide pandemic for us to realize we should stop celebrating colonialism and the original superspreader event that killed indigenous folx and women, so be it."

In a recent podcast appearance, Hong lamented the “toxic white supremacy culture that is ingrained in this country's history.” She further stated that “racism is the backbone of this history."

Other progressive stalwarts have notably declined to endorse Hong, including Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. However, each has argued that they are focused on the battles for the House and Senate, rather than statewide contests.

Betting odds currently position Hong as nearly certain to win the party primary, with Polymarket assigning her 96% odds of victory, compared to Crowley’s 4%.

A Hong victory would mark the latest breakthrough of a democratic socialist in the primaries, following progressive waves in New York, Colorado, then Michigan. But general election polling has suggested that Hong may not be as well-positioned as other candidates to beat Tiffany in November.

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Tiffany with a 1.7% lead over Hong, a nearly 4-point difference between his matchup with Crowley, who leads him by 2.0% in the same metric.

Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race is considered a toss-up and expected to be one of the most competitive of the cycle. Republicans last held the governor’s mansion in 2019, when Gov. Scott Walker left office.

But Republicans have managed to win some statewide contests since then, with GOP Sen. Ron Johnson securing reelection in 2022.

Also on Tuesday, key races in Minnesota and South Carolina are set to test the power of President Donald Trump's endorsement. 

MyPillow founder Mike Lindell is seeking the Republican nomination for governor of Minnesota. He has the support of the president and is expected to cruise to the nomination.

But South Carolina's special primary to replace the late GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, will likely head to a runoff as the crowded contest has not seen the emergence of a clear front-runner. Her two best-known contenders are Rep. Ralph Norman and former governor and congressman Mark Sanford. 

Trump has endorsed GOP Sen. Darline Graham, who was appointed to complete her brother's term. But she has not been able to rally voters to propel her to a clear lead, and she will likely face a runoff. Trump's endorsement in South Carolina has previously proven to be less of a kingmaking declaration than in other states.

While the Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette narrowly finished first in the first round of the South Carolina GOP gubernatorial primary, Trump was forced to issue a rare double-endorsement when it became clear that voters were backing Attorney General Alan Wilson in the runoff.

Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent for Just the News. Follow him on X.