Battle for Senate leadership could pit MAGA against 'establishment' after resounding Trump victory

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to retake the Oval Office, a Senate leadership race to replace long-time Republican leader Mitch McConnell is heating up. Trump’s resounding victory in the presidential contest could shake up the race, pitting the MAGA wing and traditional wing against one another. 

It is indisputable, after several Senate victories for key Republicans in the 2024 contests, that the chamber is more friendly than ever to President Trump as he returns to office after a four year hiatus. As many as four new senators could owe their elections to Trump’s victory, if Arizona’s Kari Lake or Nevada’s Sam Brown prevail after all the votes are counted. 

The three leading candidates are now jockeying to show that they have the MAGA chops to lead the upper chamber in a time that will be crucial for Trump’s second term agenda. Congress will soon face several challenges, including renewing Trump’s 2017 tax cuts before they expire, facilitating the new administration’s plans to secure the border, and clawing back what Republicans believe is wasteful federal spending from the Biden era. 

But two candidates for the role, John Thune of North Dakota and John Cornyn of Texas, have both worked in leadership and are close allies of outgoing establishment wing leader McConnell. Aside from sharing a first name, they have also both been critical of Trump in the past, especially following the January 6 riots at the Capitol, and expressed trepidation about a third Trump candidacy. 

Thune specifically angered Trump when he said the Senate would slap down any challenges to state electoral votes in the 2020 election, which Trump claimed were plagued by fraud. As a result, Trump and his allies sought to boot Thune out of office by supporting a primary challenger, though the effort was ultimately unsuccessful. Both Thune and Cornyn have recently worked smooth over their relationship with Trump after it became apparent he would be the Republican nominee and likely victor in the presidential race. 

But, the third contender, Florida Senator Rick Scott, is running as the most Trump-friendly candidate in the race and promises wide ranging reforms to how the upper chamber would operate under Republican control. Trump’s resounding victory may give the two term Senator a needed boost. 

Scott made headlines when he launched a failed bid to replace McConnell in the wake of the 2020 election promising changes to how the Senate GOP would operate, including less compromise with Democrats on key issues. 

Scott entered the chamber after the 2018 election after eight years as Florida’s governor. After his election he took a leadership position for the 2022 elections, namely, Chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm tasked with growing the Republican margin in the Senate. 

A lackluster performance in the election is one black mark on Scott’s record, fueled by accusations of financial mismanagement at the group. Tensions also rose between Scott and McConnell during the cycle over the former’s “12 point Plan to Rescue America.” This tension eventually prompted Scott to launch his leadership challenge against McConnell to reform the leadership. 

In a letter circulated to colleagues announcing his candidacy this time, Scott promised similar leadership reforms, including restoring the regular appropriations process, giving senators ample time to review legislation before votes, and promising to never pressure colleagues to vote on something against constituent interests. 

“President Trump needs a Senate that will back his cabinet, Supreme Court and judicial nominations,” Scott posted to X on Friday. “He needs a Senate Leader that supports his vision for America.” 

So far, President-elect Trump has so far not backed any of the leadership candidates. This decision does not appear to bother Senator Thune, who has publicly said that he thinks it is in Trump’s “best interest” to stay out of the race. 

“I’m staying in regular contact with him and with his team and, obviously, if he wants to, he could exert a considerable amount of influence on that but, honestly, I think my preference would be and I think it’s probably in his best interest to stay out of it,” Thune said to CNBC’s Joe Kernen. 

“These Senate secret-ballot elections are probably best left to the senators and he’s got to work with all of us when it’s all said and done,” he added. 

However, Thune has publicly weighed in negatively several times on Trump’s candidacies in 2016 and 2024 and on his criminal prosecutions which may make it difficult for the senator to portray himself as the best positioned to cooperate with Trump’s agenda. Following the 2022 midterms, when a reporter asked Thune if he would support Trump if he was the nominee, the senator said “I hope we have other options, and I think we will have other options.” 

Thune also deflected when asked whether he would support Trump if he were to be convicted of state charges of fraud in New York. “I’m not… we’ll see how the trial comes out,” Thune said in response to reporters. 

Back in 2016, Thune called for Trump to drop out of the presidential race after the release of the infamous "Access Hollywood" tape was made public. “Donald Trump should withdraw and Mike Pence should be our nominee effective immediately,” Thune posted to Twitter, now X. 

In the wake of the 2020 election, Trump called for a primary challenge to unseat Thune after the senator said any efforts to challenge the certification of Joe Biden’s victory would “go down like a shot dog.” 

“I just don’t think it makes a lot of sense to put everybody through this when you know what the ultimate outcome is going to be,” Thune said at the time. 

In the wake of Jan. 6, Senator Cornyn opposed the second impeachment of then-President Trump but suggested that he could be held accountable after leaving office. 

“Theoretically the president, once he leaves office could be charged with incitement to insurrection,” Cornyn said at the time. "That would be one possibility, if in fact the evidence supported it.”

Cornyn did not say whether he believed the president’s conduct that day met the standard, but called his language “reckless.” 

At least one senator is publicly urging Trump to put his finger on the scale for Scott. Senator Ron Johnson, who has endorsed Scott’s bid, called on Trump Thursday to back Scott. “Jesse, if you’ve got any influence with President Trump, ask President Trump to come out publicly and say he wants to work with someone as accomplished as Rick Scott to accomplish his agenda,” Johnson said in an interview with podcast host Jesse Kelly. 

Senator Josh Hawley on Friday announced his support for Cornyn, citing the Texas senator’s efforts to raise $33 million in funds to support his colleagues’ reelection bids. 

At this point Senators Mike Rounds, R-S.D., and Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., have endorsed Thune.