Trump faces first big hurdle as House, Senate leaders grapple with legislative strategy

President-elect Donald Trump has an ambitious agenda for his first 100 days, but divisions between House and Senate Republicans on strategy threaten to derail his legislative initiatives and risk failure on key campaign promises.

Among the top priorities for the president-elect are extending the Trump tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and enacting mass deportations and other immigration reforms. Incoming White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller outlined Trump's plans in a recent appearance on Fox News’s “Hannity.”

“You're going to see the border sealed shut. The criminal aliens are going to be shipped home. Foreign countries around the world are going to accept the gang members and the cartel members that are poisoning our families and murdering American children,” he said. 

“You're going to see him work with Congress to pass another round of historic tax relief, and you're going to see a government that is accountable to the people again, the swamp will be drained on day one,” Miller added.

While many of Trump’s efforts are likely to come through executive action, his immigration and tax policies will see him go through the legislature, at least in part. But key figures in each chamber of Congress appear divided on how to do so.

“What we’re deciding right now is the sequence of how we’re running those plays. It’s really important, the House and the Senate have different calculations on how that’s done but we all have exactly the same priorities,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said this week.

The two-step approach

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and the incoming Trump White House appear to be largely in synch on taking a “two-step” approach to border security and tax reform. Thune and Miller hope to pass separate packages on those efforts, in part, as a means to give Republicans some legislative momentum.

“Republicans need that little muscle memory around winning and getting things done," Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, told Axios of the plan.

Miller said that Thune and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., plan to bring a border funding bill at some time in February, making it likely to be the first major legislative effort of the Trump administration. Prioritizing that initiative makes sense in light of Trump’s keynote pledge of building a border wall and cracking down on immigration.

Thune and Graham, Miller said, have promised that the package will include "full funding for ICE beds, full funding for air and marine operations, full funding for all of the barriers and technology that you need to ensure there's never another got-away entering this country.”

The separate tax package would follow the border bill and is somewhat less time sensitive, given the Trump tax cuts are set to expire next year.

House Republicans dissent

Potentially complicating that approach is opposition from House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, who wants a combined package of tax cuts and border funding.

“I’ve been very successful getting votes. I know the House on tax policy better than anyone else. If they want to give me the best opportunity to pass the president’s tax plan, make it all in one bill,” Smith said, according to Semafor.

The 2017 TCJA was one of Trump’s few legislative successes in his first term and some Republicans have been wary of the limited, potentially two-year window for the GOP to send legislation to his desk. Some, such as Smith, seem to want to put as much as possible in popular bills to get other proposals through on momentum.

“I have expressed my idea on tax policy, and that’s my idea,” Smith told Politico. Other lawmakers, however, see it as much as a matter of securing House input in the process.

“Our members need to weigh in on that. This doesn’t need to be a decision that’s made upon high, okay?” House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, said, according to Politico. “We’re all unified around the objectives, [but] how we roll it out, the tactics and strategies, still under discussion.”

Can Trump play a role?

The president-elect has generally not been one to get bogged down in parliamentary procedure and there is little reason to suspect he will personally whip votes on a matter of strategy. Miller’s coordination with Thune seems to be the extent of direct executive branch involvement.

Some lawmakers have suggested that Trump seems more supportive of the two-step plan, but he has yet to directly involve himself. “It seems to me Trump would love it,” Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D. said. “A lot of the people I’ve talked to in Trump world seem to be supportive.”

Ultimately, the February timeline for a border package will leave Republicans with little time to get their lawmakers on board with a unified plan.