In next decade, 84% of federal spending growth comes from health, Social Security, interest: CRFB

Over the next decade, 84% of federal spending growth will come from health, Social Security and interest, according to a new analysis from a federal budget watchdog group.

"Spending on Social Security will grow from $1.5 trillion this year to $2.5 trillion by 2034, while spending on health care will grow from $1.6 trillion to $2.8 trillion," a Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analysis found. "Net interest costs will more than double from $870 billion this year to $1.6 trillion by 2034, after costs nearly doubled between 2020 and 2023. Interest on the debt is the fastest growing part of the budget and will be the second largest government expenditure this year, surpassing both defense and Medicare."

The CRFB noted that "budget deficits are projected to grow from $1.7 trillion in Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 to $2.6 trillion by 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest projections."

The organization issued a strong warning about the growth of the national debt over the next 10 years.

"As a result of this rapid spending growth alongside revenue that fails to keep up, the national debt will exceed its record as a share of the economy in just four years," the group wrote in the analysis. "Policymakers should address this growing divide between spending and revenue to put the debt on a sustainable downward path."

The president of the CRFB, Maya MacGuineas, has urged Congress to create a fiscal commission to work on entitlement reform and other issues to address the long-term growth of the deficit and debt.

"Interest on the national debt, already higher than federal spending on children or Medicaid, will exceed spending on defense this year, on its way to $1 trillion by 2026. This is no way to run a country. Policymakers need to take this somber moment to reflect on the grave situation we face and commit themselves to do better. Last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act was a good start, but there is so much more to be done," MacGuineas said.

"We can start by actually passing a budget and by establishing a bipartisan fiscal commission to tackle some of these issues. We need a real plan to put the national debt on a downward sustainable path before it’s too late," she added.

The House Budget Committee recently passed legislation that would create a bipartisan fiscal commission but it has not yet passed the full House. Most of the Democrats on the House Budget Committee opposed establishing the commission, arguing that it would result in cutting Social Security benefits.

Former House Speaker Ryan and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon last month warned the American public and U.S. elected officials that the nation is nearing the edge of its fiscal cliff, calling it the "most predictable crisis" the country faces. Both Ryan and Dimon indicated that they support the creation of a statutory fiscal commission.