The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting fewer-than-usual Atlantic hurricanes this season but is leaving open the possibility of a more active cycle. 

The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is expected to produce fewer such storms as a result of El Niño, a natural and cyclic warming of parts of the central Pacific that changes weather patterns around the globe. 

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said Thursday.

The agency is predicting a 35% change for a near-normal season, and a 10% chance for an above-normal season. The seasonal outlook calls for 8–14 named storms, which are those with winds 39 mph or higher. Of those, 3–6 are forecast to become hurricanes, meaning storms with winds 74 mph or higher, and as many of three are forecast to become major hurricanes with winds 111 mph or higher. 

Eighteen private and academic groups also produce forecasts for the season, with an average of a dozen named storms forecasted among them, NBC reported. 

Colorado State University is predicting the lowest overall activity since 2015, which was the strongest El Niño in the last 75 years.