Medicare is projected to go bankrupt by 2032, but thanks to the last 18 months of investigations into waste, fraud and abuse at the second-largest entitlement fund, the life of the program may be extended by over a decade, or longer. 

"The beautiful thing about taking out fraud is you're taking out bad guys who are stealing from poor people," Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz told Just The News exclusively.

"The American people love it, but you're also saving the program from insolvency. We project that Medicare will go bankrupt in about six years. We could double that life expectancy just by taking the fraud out of Medicare—forget the rest of it—just from Medicare."

Under President Donald Trump, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has focused on program integrity rather than a comprehensive solvency package that would close the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund gap. 

CMS reports it has blocked more than $1.6 billion in potentially fraudulent laboratory payments since January 2025 and cited $42 billion in FY2025 fraud-prevention savings. Officials, including Oz and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, describe waste, fraud and abuse crackdowns as the main path to stretch Medicare dollars. 

The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act made 2017-era tax cuts permanent and added a senior deduction, which the 2026 Trustees Report says reduced Hospital Insurance revenue from taxation of Social Security benefits and widened the 75-year shortfall. 

Benefits by the numbers

Medicare covered about 69.3 million people in 2025 and roughly 70.7 million in 2026—about 62.2 million age 65+ and 7.1 million under 65 with disabilities. 

In 2026, 55% of those with Parts A and B used Medicare Advantage. Program spending was about $1.21 trillion in 2025 and near $1.3 trillion in 2026, up from $666 billion a decade earlier. 

Enrollment rose 66% and spending 285% from 2005 to 2026. Average 2025 benefits were about $18,650 per enrollee and workers per beneficiary fell from 4.0 in 1980 to 2.7 in 2026.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Medicare over the years 

President Lyndon B. Johnson signed Medicare into law on July 30, 1965 as Title XVIII of the Social Security Amendments, creating hospital insurance (Part A) and medical insurance (Part B) for Americans age 65 and older. Coverage began one year and one day later, building on earlier national health-insurance efforts by President Harry Truman. 

The program expanded in 1972 to people with long-term disabilities and end-stage renal disease. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 established private-plan options later renamed Medicare Advantage (Part C), and the 2003 Medicare Modernization Act added voluntary Part D prescription-drug coverage effective 2006. 

Part A is financed mainly by a 2.9 percent payroll tax (plus an extra 0.9 percent on high earners) through the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund; Parts B and D rely on beneficiary premiums and general-revenue transfers via the Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund. In 2025, Medicare covered 69.3 million people at a cost of just over $1.2 trillion. 

The HI Trust Fund is projected to be exhausted in the second quarter of 2033, after which dedicated revenues would cover only about 89 percent of scheduled Part A benefits unless Congress acts.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Amanda Head is White House Correspondent for Just The News. You can follow her here.