Drought, distracted U.S. could presage more Russian moves on Ukraine, former Army commander says

Conditions in September could be ripe for increased Russian incursions into Ukraine, the former U.S. Army commander for Europe told Just the News.

The combined effects of a summer drought, a lack of water in Crimea, a distracted United States, and a new Russian constitution could pave the way for the Kremlin to declare a humanitarian crisis, seize a key dam, and occupy additional Ukrainian territory, said retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges.

Russia could claim that the dam, located near Nova Kakhovka in Ukraine, must be captured and opened in order to rescue a parched Crimea, Hodges indicated.

"I could easily envision a scenario where Russia seizes the dam," taps Russian forces in nearby Transnistria, and stakes a claim in Ukraine while conditions are advantageous, said Hodges, the previous commander of U.S. Army Europe. "This may seem unlikely, but everything else they do has seemed unlikely." 

The drought-triggered invasion scenario increasingly has prompted concerns in Ukraine. 

“The situation is creating a serious public health crisis in Crimea and could prompt Moscow, which has few other options, to engage in a new military action against Ukraine to gain access to water supplies, especially as Ukrainian officials and commentators have made clear that Kyiv is not prepared to sell water to the occupation authorities,” according to a May report in the Ukraine-based Euromaidan Press.

Warnings also were sounded last month by a high ranking Ukrainian government official, according to a report in the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. 

"A significant number of military experts and analysts share the opinion about the possibility of a military offensive," the deputy minister of foreign affairs, Vasyl Bodnar, reportedly said. "NATO also understands how real it is to use Russia's military potential against Ukraine, and its activation is possible in the very near future.”

Conditions for such a move could fall into place in September, while the United States is distracted by COVID-19, domestic unrest, and the 2020 elections, Hodges said. 

Russia also would employ cyberattacks against Ukraine to disrupt communications, and would step up disinformation, he said.

Russia would justify its actions by citing its newly passed revised constitution, the retired three-star general said.

"Inside this constitution they make the case that all the former Soviet countries are theirs," Hodges said. "They try to create a legal basis for what they do."

Russia seemed poised to bolster that basis on Tuesday, when the State Duma approved the first step of a proposed anti-extremism law. The law, observers say, is in part meant to stifle debate over Russia's 2014 capture of Crimea from Ukraine.

Once the law is enacted, "calls for the violation of Russia's territorial integrity, including calls to alienate parts of its territory, will be considered extremism," Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin reportedly said on July 14. 

Sources at the Pentagon would not discuss whether they believe Russia soon will invade Ukraine. But, one official told Just the News, "We monitor stability issues around the world."

Meanwhile, Hodges said, Moscow continues its forays into other nations' territory.

"They are making a move on Ukraine right now," Hodges said. "A Ukrainian medic yesterday was killed in Donbas, when he went out to recover a soldier's body."

The medic was killed near the village of Zaitseve, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv confirmed on Tuesday.

"We are deeply saddened by the reported killing yesterday of a Ukrainian military medic near Zaitseve," the embassy wrote on Twitter on July 14. "We join the people of Ukraine in condemning the ongoing, brutal aggression of Russian-led forces in Donbas and pay tribute to the heroism of many Ukrainians who have lost their lives and suffered injuries in brave service to their democracy." 

Russia's moves on land notwithstanding, it aims in the short term to conquer an oceanic prize, Hodges said.

"Their objective is not to take over Europe," he said. "It's to undermine the [NATO] alliance and the European Union. Their objective is control the Black Sea and isolate Ukraine from it."

Russia values the Black Sea because it offers access to Syria and Libya, Hodges said. 

Russia has scheduled large-scale military exercises, Kavkaz 2020, to be held in September, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Although Moscow reportedly claims that it has scaled back the exercise and moved it away from NATO borders, the large number of troops could be called upon for a potential move against Ukraine, Hodges and other observers said. 

"If they can achieve what they want without obvious force, they will," Hodges said. "If they need to use force, they will."