Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to arrive in Washington, D.C., on Friday, reportedly to sign a formal agreement on the joint extraction of his nation’s mineral resources, but the final terms of the agreement were up in the air as of Friday morning and it remains unclear whether he will secure an agreement with the White House at all.

The reported agreement stemmed from President Donald Trump’s repeated demands that Ukraine repay the American investment in its defense against the ongoing Russian invasion. That demand prompted outrage from Kyiv and led to a cycle of reported deals and retractions that further strained relations between both countries.

His arrival comes as Russia makes gains on the battlefield across the front and Washington pursues a rapprochement with the Kremlin that could see the major powers sideline Ukraine while they pursue other ventures.

Terms remain unclear

Trump has repeatedly insisted that the United States deserves compensation for its support thus far, however, and initially floated a $500 billion mineral resources deal that Zelensky refused to sign. He has further categorically refused to accept the notion that Ukraine owes Washington any debt for its support.

Talks of a revised plan have led to contradictory reporting and public statements from Trump officials about its status. While the Ukrainian government approved the draft framework of a deal this week, according to the BBC, the Ukrainian demand for security guarantees from the United States remains a sticking point. Under the draft, Ukraine would place 50% of revenue from the extraction of state-owned mineral resources into a joint account.

Trump has repeatedly rejected Ukraine’s entry into NATO, Russia’s stated reason for the invasion. But European leaders have indicated a willingness to deploy troops to Ukraine, provided the U.S. gives them security guarantees should they face an attack. Neither development appears likely in the near future, however.

"Guarantees of peace and security — this is the key to ensuring that Russia will no longer be destroying the lives of other nations," Zelensky said prior to the trip. The draft framework reportedly states that the “US will support Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees” but makes no direct commitment of American resources or personnel to that end.

“$350 billion dollars, lots of equipment, military equipment, the right to fight on,” Trump said this week, when asked what Ukraine got out of the deal.

But the value of any mineral deal for the U.S. remains in question, however, as large portions of Ukraine’s natural resource deposits are situated in territory currently under Russian control or near the current line of contact. To be sure, Ukraine has substantial mineral resource deposits that do not face the imminent threat of Russian seizure, namely along the western shores of the Dnieper, but continued Russian progress on the battlefield continues to undercut the security of any investment in Ukrainian resources.

Implications for peace

Trump campaigned on ending the Ukraine War on his first day, though that self-imposed deadline has come and gone, a development for which he has partially blamed Zelensky’s own refusal to compromise.

“I don’t think he’s very important to be at meetings, to be honest with you,” Trump said last week. “He makes it very hard to make deals.”

Among the peace proposals grabbing headlines are the prospect of a ceasefire on current battle lines and the use of European troops to patrol a demilitarized zone within Ukraine. That premise has proved a non-starter for Moscow, which regards a European military presence as a de facto admission to NATO, and for Kyiv, which refuses to formally cede any territory to Russia.

While Trump has expressed hope for a speedy end to the conflict, Russian gains on the battlefield, notably against Ukrainian forces in Kursk and the Donbas, are likely to disincentivize Moscow from concluding an arrangement, even as it renews dialogue with Washington.

Timing is everything

Zelensky’s arrival follows Russo-American talks in Istanbul for the resumption of consular activities within both nations. Those talks were primarily about Russo-American direct relations and Ukraine was not at the forefront of the conversation.

Diplomats reached a loose framework on the normalization of relations and economic activities during recent talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Those talks led Zelensky to furiously lash out against the Trump administration, to which Trump responded by criticizing Zelensky's leadership and pointing out the expiration of his term as president.

Zelensky’s arrival in Washington on the heels of Russo-American diplomatic talks is sure to put pressure on him to secure a conclusive arrangement with Trump. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday expressed optimism about his nation’s future relationship with America.

“Let me note that the first contacts with the new American administration instill hope,” he said. “They too are willing to work toward resuming our ties, solving a colossal amount of strategic problems in the world architecture.”