President Donald Trump and his cabinet are racing to get mass deportations going, and are actively working to build the infrastructure and logistics networks to move tens of millions people while Congress prepares to provide more resources.

Early arrest figures from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) initially showed the agency on track to arrest roughly one million people by the end of Trump’s next four years. Trump has vowed to remove as many as twenty times that figure, but his administration’s current pace has slowed as the arrest volume has overwhelmed existing infrastructure.

Ramping up arrests, detention capacity, outbound flights, and logistics is certain to prove a costly undertaking and Trump has previously indicated “there is no price tag” for the effort. Despite the rhetoric, Congress will certainly need to approve some dollar amount and that process will prove complicated in the narrow divided chambers. In the meantime, Trump’s senior officials are doing all they can to speed up operations.

Gitmo expansion

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth traveled to Guantanamo Bay on Tuesday to survey the notorious facility that Trump hopes to use for his deportation efforts. The facility has long housed detained illegal immigrants, though the administration hopes to expand its occupancy to at least 30,000. The administration has already conducted some flights to the facility and recently transferred its illegal immigrant occupants to Honduras for a Venezuelan pickup.

Hegseth’s trip comes as the administration struggles to get the facility prepared for housing a large volume of deportees. An initial effort to ramp up capacity using tents was previously scrapped over concerns they did not meet standards. Hegseth’s trip saw him bring friendly media figures, such as Laura Ingraham, along to promote the deportation efforts.

“A major mission is underway—moving illegal immigrants seeking asylum out of the U.S. Stay tuned,” the former soldier-turned Fox News personality posted.

Private contractors float deals

Reportedly some private firms see this as an opportunity, with former Blackwater CEO Erik Prince and a group of military contractors floating a $25 billion private project to provide planes, facilities, and personnel with the aim of deporting 12 million by the 2026 midterms, after which Republicans could potentially lose one or both chambers of Congress and the potential to fund further efforts.

Prior to the first Trump administration, news outlets regularly put the total number of illegal immigrants within the U.S. at 11 million, though Customs and Border Protection (CBP) numbers from the Biden administration alone detailed more than 10 million further encounters.

“To keep pace with the Trump deportations, it would require a 600% increase in activity,” the memo of Prince’s plan, obtained by Politico, read. “It is unlikely that the government could swell its internal ranks to keep pace with this demand … in order to process this enormous number of deportations, the government should enlist outside assistance.”

To be sure, private contractors are no stranger to immigration and security related efforts. American governments routinely use private prisons to handle the overflow of incarcerated persons. Prince’s Blackwater -- now renamed Academi and part of Constellis --  famously participated in the Iraq War providing security support to American personnel.

The price tag

The Politico report came on the same day that the House voted on a budget resolution to pave the way for broader legislation that would fund Trump’s tax and border priorities.

The narrow margins in the chamber led to doubts that the Republicans could move a comprehensive package. The divisions within the Republican conference came as Trump lent his support to the House’s budgetary efforts, explicitly and publicly endorsing the lower chamber’s plans to finance his border proposals and pass his tax cuts in the same bill. He has further expressed support for the House’s approach over that of the two-bill Senate plan.

The House ultimately passed its plan in a 217-215 vote, with Thomas Massie, R-Ky., the sole GOP holdout.

Nevertheless, Trump’s word seems insufficient to keep the House GOP in lockstep and the fate of that chamber’s legislative effort remains unclear. The Senate previously approved Sen. Lindsey Graham’s, R-S.C., budget plan to fund border security and deportations to the tune of hundreds of billions. The reconciliation process is ongoing, however, and the significant differences between the upper and lower chamber could hinder final passage, to some degree.

Mitigating factors?

Potentially easing the strain on Border Czar Tom Homan’s deportation efforts is the precipitous and recent drop in the number of immigrant encounters at the Southwest land border. Between Trump’s executive orders reinstating the "Remain-in-Mexico" policy, his revamped security measures, and his global reputation as an immigration hardliner, the president’s return to the White House appears to have largely deterred would-be entrants to the U.S. In late February, Border Patrol Chief Mike Banks confirmed that illegal crossings had declined 94% from the year prior.

Self-deportation, moreover, began to gain traction ahead of Trump’s inauguration, with many illegal aliens voluntarily leaving the country so as to avoid arrest, deportation, and the end of any chance to return legally. The volume of voluntary departees, however, remains undetermined.