U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is on pace to arrest roughly one million illegal aliens by the end of the Trump administration, a sizable figure but well below President Donald Trump’s target. 

The revelation comes as Republicans in the House and Senate look to include border security and deportation provisions and funding in an upcoming spending package that could allow for a significant expansion of ICE arrests.

As the Trump administration pursues mass deportations, the chief agency responsible for arresting and removing illegal aliens has stopped posting daily arrest and detainer figures, but Border Czar Tom Homan has insisted the arrests are on pace as he faces leaks and public obstruction. Prior to Feb. 1, U.S. ICE posted its daily nationwide figures for the arrest of illegal aliens as well as the number of detainers it lodged that day. The agency’s X account notably stopped posting that daily update this week and has instead opted to emphasize the arrest of the most dangerous criminal figures.

The agency’s most recent enforcement update covered Jan. 31 figures, including 864 arrests and 621 detainers. The first such update appeared on its X account Jan. 23 with 538 arrests. Daily arrests reached a high of 1,179 on Jan. 27. To be sure, ICE’s arrest and detainer efforts are ongoing and Homan insisted that arrests were not down.

“I think the arrest numbers I looked at, I just talked about this morning. I think the arrests are right around over 11,000 so far since day one,” Border Czar Tom Homan told reporters on Thursday.

On track for one million

Counting Jan. 20 and excluding any Thursday numbers, that 11,000 figure would present an average of nearly 650 arrests per day. Should arrests continue at that rate, however, Trump would be on pace to arrest just under 1 million illegal immigrants over his remaining four years in office. He has, however, expressed hope to deport as many as 20 times that figure. Fortunately for Trump, the latter half of his first 10 days seems to show a loose increase in pace. Of further benefit to ICE in its deportation endeavors are the falling number of daily arrests at the southern border due to fewer arrivals. 

“I mean yesterday, at 24 hours, it was less than 50 border arrests. It wasn't too long ago we had 11,000 arrests a day under the Biden administration. We got less than 500,” Homan said.

He previously indicated that he expected arrests and deportations to begin slowly, but to expand exponentially as the administration put the infrastructure in place for larger-scale arrests. Even within the fewer than two weeks of Trump’s efforts, that trend appears to be materializing.

Currently complicating Homan’s efforts, however, are capacity issues and leaks compromising individual operations. Such a problem was pervasive during the first administration and then-Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen’s office was riddled with leakers, notably Miles Taylor aka “anonymous.”

Leaks and sabotaging ICE efforts

At least some insiders are not in step with the Trump administration’s efforts to deport illegal immigrants. Border Czar Tom Homan confirmed on Thursday that ICE’s planned raid on apartment buildings in Aurora, Colo., had been leaked and that ICE agents found empty apartments and protesters at the site. 

Aurora was in the headlines during the 2024 presidential campaign as Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua occupied multiple apartment complexes in the city.

"We've already identified how this operation got leaked. I'll deal with that today," he told Fox News. "To have this type of interference puts the officers at great risk."

He further suggested that the agency was likely to clamp down on media access to its operations to limit avenues for information to reach operational targets.

“We've invited numerous media outlets along, but right now it's all about [OPSEC] operational security, so we may have to stop the media ride-alongs because I'm not pointing the finger at [them], but the less people that know about these operations, the safer it is for our agents,” he told reporters. “So we're looking at that right now.”

Capacity issues

Trump made headlines this week as the first of many planned flights to send illegal immigrant criminals to Guantanamo Bay departed the U.S. The prison facility has become notorious as a dumping ground for terrorists, but the Trump administration wants to build on existing migrant incarceration and the site to enable larger deportations.

“Look, we've had a Migrant processing center at Gitmo for decades, so we're increasing our footprint there. It makes sense,” Homan said. “I just got a question on migrant beds. That's going to be another place where we have up to 30,000 beds.”

Situated in Cuba, Guantanamo Bay entered U.S. purview due to the Spanish-American War. The addition would nearly double ICE detention bed totals. In fiscal year 2024, ICE received funding for detention bed space of 41,500, according to the American Immigration Council.

Separately, the U.S. also discussed a deal to hold prisoners at a facility in El Salvador operated by the government of President Nayib Bukele. His government earned international attention for its crackdown on gang operations that has seen the nation’s crime rates plummet. The legality of keeping American prisoners in El Salvador, however, is sure to face legal scrutiny.

Expected support from Congress

Trump met with House Speaker Mike Johnson and the House Republican Conference on Thursday to discuss an upcoming spending package. That legislation is expected to include a number of provisions codifying Trump’s immigration-related executive orders as well as additional funding for ICE and related agencies.

While acts of Congress reinforcing Trump’s moves are sure to give ICE greater legal cover, the agency will likely need an expansion in funding, intelligence assets, and overall staffing to achieve the arrest numbers necessary to meet Trump’s targets.

Though both chambers will need to pass any such legislation, the Senate has opted to move ahead of the lower chamber, with Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on Thursday announcing plans to mark up a $300 billion resolution to fund deportations and border security.

"This will be the most transformational border security bill in the history of our country," he vowed. Graham has not provided many details about the breakdown of the $300 billion figure, but ICE, the Border Patrol, and the Executive Office for Immigration Review received less than $20 billion in fiscal year 2024, according to the AIC.

From the executive branch

Trump is expected to back Homan to the hilt, but several other agencies are likely to lend their support as well, notably the Department of Justice, which halted funding for sanctuary cities on Attorney General Pam Bondi’s first day in office.

Her department will face the task of litigating the deportation efforts, which remain vulnerable to judicial injunctions and other legal scrutiny. The freeze on funding to sanctuary cities, however, may cause some illegal immigration hotspots to rethink their positions and cooperate with ICE in a manner that could greatly increase the pace of arrests.

Bondi’s DOJ also directly sued a major sanctuary jurisdiction on Thursday, alleging that Chicago and the state of Illinois’ laws are "designed to and in fact interfere with and discriminate against the Federal Government's enforcement of federal immigration law in violation of the Supremacy Clause of the United States Constitution.”

Popular support

The agency enjoys broad public support amid its efforts. A recent Economist/YouGov survey, for instance, found 50% of U.S. adults holding a positive view of ICE compared to 35% who held a negative view and 15% who were unsure. Unsurprisingly, the figures vary dramatically by party alignment, with 71% of Republicans and 39% of Democrats viewing ICE favorably.

Border enforcement agents, meanwhile, are thrilled with Trump’s efforts. Speaking to Just the News earlier this month, National Border Patrol Council Vice President Art del Cueto said agents were “just thrilled. You know, I think President Trump is doing it a lot with rhetoric and now with the executive orders trying to get things done, and people are now self deporting.”

Homan, for his part, encouraged illegal immigrants to self-deport as news of voluntary exits made headlines, saying, “While we're out prioritizing the public safety threats and national security threats, If you want to self-deport, you should self-deport because, again, we know who you are, and we're going to come and find you.”