US allies ponder closer China relations as insurance against more Trump administration uncertainty
Mark Carney has reshaped his country’s approach to China, becoming the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit Beijing in nearly a decade.
French leaders at the recently completed Group of Seven (G7) summit agreed – at least on paper – to new, coordinated steps to reduce dependence on China.
But discussions in Évian also exposed a more complicated problem: The same allies Washington wants to enlist to counterbalance Beijing’s influence are increasingly looking for ways to protect themselves from Washington.
That tension is becoming one of the central topics of the Western Alliance, with Canada and the major European powers wary of China’s increasing economic power. But after months of tariffs, trade threats, and doubts about Washington’s reliability as an ally, those countries are also trying to reduce reliance on the U.S.
No Western power is embracing Beijing. Countries remain widely worried about China’s overcapacity, state subsidies, industrial dumping and its hold on rare earth minerals. The European Union’s trade deficit with China totals more than $1 billion per day, an unsustainable level.
But countries do appear to be looking at China as a hedge, something Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney described as increasing “strategic autonomy,” saying last month that “we live in a world where integration has been weaponized.”
Since becoming Canada’s leader last year, Carney has reshaped his country’s approach to China. In January, he became the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit Beijing in nearly a decade, saying it was part of a grand strategy to diversify trade partnerships with China, something he said “presents enormous opportunities” for Canada.
“Our relationship with the United States … is much more multifaceted, much deeper, and much broader than it is with China,” Carney said at the time. “But, yes, in terms of the way our relationship has progressed in recent months with China, it is more predictable, and you see you see results coming from that.”
Europe’s most vocal version of Carney’s argument has come from French President Emmanuel Macron, who has argued that the continent must avoid becoming subordinate to either Washington or Beijing.
On a trip to Greece in April, Macron warned that “any strategy of decoupling from China” risked increasing European dependence on the U.S. at a time when European countries should be wary of that.
“We should not underestimate that this is a unique moment where a U.S. president, a Russian president, and a Chinese president are dead against the Europeans,” Macron said. “So, this is the right moment for us to wake up.”
But though Macron said he believed tensions between the U.S. and Europe would “outlast the Trump administration,” the French leader has not abandoned hopes of improving the ties with Washington.
At the conclusion of the G7 event, Macron invited President Donald Trump to a state dinner at Versailles, near Paris, to celebrate the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence and noting France’s central role in helping the U.S. defeat their British colonial masters. Though the meeting did not yield concrete results, analysts said it was still symbolically important.
“In any leader’s relationship, whether we’re talking about [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping], [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, or Macron, you want to be on this American president’s good side,” Jeffrey Hawkins, a former U.S. diplomat told reporters. “And a way to do that is to hist him, to welcome him, in a way where he feels well received, where he feels important and respected.”
The G7 is made up of the world’s seven largest full industrialized economies: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.
The Facts Inside Our Reporter's Notebook
Links
- new coordinated steps to reduce dependence on China
- trade deficit with China totals more than $1 billion per day
- we live in a world where integration has been weaponized
- the first sitting Canadian prime minister to visit Beijing in nearly a decade
- a U.S. president, a Russian president, and a Chinese president are dead against the Europeans
- celebrate the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence
- you want to be on this American presidentâs good side