Top economist expresses concern about shrinking job total under the Biden administration

A top economist is raising concerns that monthly job figures under the Biden administration are starting out strong, but then begin shrinking through belated statistical revisions. 

"In 28 years, I've never seen 11 of 12 months where job numbers came out looking very strong, and then they were revised downwards," Peter Earle, the senior economist for the American Institute for Economic Research, told the Just the News, No Noise TV show Wednesday evening. "Of course, the kicker there is that when you revise those things downwards, they don't get the sort of media attention that the top line initial number gets."

The Daily Caller reported this week that data it analyzed from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the government last year overestimated the number of jobs in the U.S. economy by an average of 105,000 per month.

The shrinking job statistics come as concerns grow that companies are beginning to layoff employees.

According to Fox Business, layoffs increased 98% in 2023 and more layoffs are expected to continue in 2024.

Some industries that have been impacted by these layoffs include technology, travel and media. UPS announced last month it would be cutting 12,000 jobs, roughly 2.4% of its workforce.

Earle added that he is also concerned about the Gross Domestic Product or GDP, saying that there seem to be some revisions after numbers come out. 

"That's the same thing with GDP and every other number that has two or three revisions afterwards," he said. "I'm going to stop short of calling it a complete scam or a fabrication. But I will say that the amount of discretion which goes into the first month of those numbers, is probably not consistent with randomness."

Another issue that will be crucial going into an election year is inflation and the high cost of groceries and gasoline. 

A poll conducted by Emerson College in December 2023 shows that 38% of young voters' top issue is the economy. 

"The financial concerns and emotional strain among younger voters regarding the cost of living are influencing their perception of President Biden’s leadership," Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. "Some are losing confidence, not necessarily shifting to Trump, but exploring third-party options.”

Earle said that despite some reports saying that inflation has improved, people have noticed an increase in necessities such as food. 

"With the generation younger than me.....this will be their first kitchen table election," he stated. "People are actually looking at prices, and they're saying, 'yeah, it's true that BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] says that inflation is up between three to four percent over the last year, but we know that steaks are up 15% and that ground beef is up 8%. I mean, prices are just skyrocketing."

Earle added that people are catching on to the government gaslighting them on inflation and it has led to skepticism.

"The more you hear a political figure, whether it's someone in the White House or your congressman or whoever telling you that what you see is not what's actually happening, you know that they're hiding things," he said. "I think that that's going to be the pivotal issue."