With three weeks to go, Trump ascending to favorite in betting markets

Just 22 days from Election Day, Republican Donald Trump is the betting favorite over Kamala Harris 54.1%-44.9%.

Six times the favorite has changed since the vice president became the clear choice of Democrats in the wake of President Joe Biden quitting. The latest difference is the largest since the first of those shifts.

“We are going to defeat Kamala Harris, and we are going to usher in a new golden age of American success for citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed,” Trump said on social media Sunday.

Harris, campaigning Sunday in North Carolina, told her audience, "As president it is my pledge to you that I will always fight for all the American people, and together we will build a brighter future for our nation."

Trump has a 20-point platform, led by a return to enforcement of securing national borders. He chastises the Democrats for inflation that at 2.4% remains higher than when he left office in January 2021, yet is considerably lower than the 9.1% high of June 2022 under the watch of President Joe Biden. Energy independence and “manufacturing superpower” are also in his top five.

Harris, second in command to Biden, says her top issues are an opportunity economy and lower costs for families. Tax cuts for the middle class, affordable rent and home ownership, and growth by small businesses also top her list. She favors a return to Roe v. Wade on abortion.

Trump is favored on all seven of the RealClear sources to generate the betting average. Points Bet (57%) is strongest on the Republican, followed by Betsson (56%), Bwin (55%), Bovada (54%), Smarkets (53%), and Polymarket (52%) and Betfair (52%).

At the time of the first assassination attempt of Trump, he was running against Biden and his difference soared to plus-48.5 that July day. It was still over plus-42 a day before Biden quit and Harris assumed preferred candidate choice of Democrats.

The betting favorite changed to Harris on Aug. 8, went back to Trump on Aug. 21 as the Democratic National Convention closed though only for two days, came back to Trump again on Aug. 29, went back to Harris when they debated Sept. 10, and returned to Trump’s favor on Oct. 6.

In many states with early in-person voting, polls open this week.