Many Arab, Muslim-American voters leaving Harris for Trump, Stein

Arab Americans are drifting away from supporting Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats as a whole during the Biden-Harris administration, with many defecting to former President Donald Trump and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

It's a trend that could be a major factor in swing states such as Michigan, which has a large Arab-American population.

The Arab American Institute surveyed 500 Arab American registered voters, which found that Trump and Harris have evenly split the Arab American vote 42-41%, a drop in support from the level Democrats received in 2020.

“Looking more closely, with those that report they are very likely to vote, Trump leads Harris 46% to 42%,” AAI said. "Only 79% of Democrats support Harris, while 89% of Republicans support Trump. Kamala Harris regained much of the support Biden lost after October 7th, but Harris remains 18 points below Biden’s 2020 level of support with Arab American voters.”

At the recent vice presidential debate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz clearly advocated for Israel’s right to defend itself while also pointing to the humanitarian issues in Gaza, essentially mimicking Harris’ comments on the issue from her own debate weeks prior.

Before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, he faced frequent protests and accusations of supporting genocide in Gaza. Harris’ opposition has been less fervent, but aside from her general comments, the fullness of her position on the issue has not yet been worked out.

While some Arab American voters have left Harris for a third party candidate, AAI said Trump has received most of the benefit.

“All the third-party candidates combined receive just 12% of the Arab American vote. Instead, it’s Trump who is the beneficiary of the community’s anger and despair over the Biden Administration’s failure to prevent the unfolding genocide in Gaza,” AAI said.

In late August, The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) released a poll showing American Muslim voters supporting Stein and Harris equally, at 29% each, with Trump at 12%.

“Our latest survey reveals that American Muslim voters are highly engaged in the upcoming presidential election, open to supporting a diverse range of candidates and political parties, and deeply dissatisfied with the current state of the nation, particularly U.S. support for the war on Gaza," CAIR said in a news release accompanying its poll.

The poll found that 40% of Muslim voters in the swing state of Michigan support Stein, 18% support Trump, and just 12% support Harris. There were 206,050 Muslim voters in Michigan in 2020, according to Emgage’s 2022 report looking at Muslim voter participation in the last presidential election.

In Arizona, Stein led Harris at 35% to 29%. In Wisconsin, Stein led Harris at 44% to 39%. Overall, across six battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – Stein led Harris, 30% to 28%.

The polls confirm the political significance of the Oct. 7 terror attack where Hamas, which is identified by the State Department as a terrorist group, killed over 1,000 Israeli civilians and took hostages, kicking off a war between the two that is still continuing.

The loss in support comes as first Biden and then Harris struggled to navigate the division within the Democratic Party and some antisemetic elements within the party over the Israel-Hamas war.

“The Biden Administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza, however, has eroded that support resulting in Arab Americans now evenly divided between the two parties – 38% for each,” AAI said of its polling. “Both Democrats and Republicans saw an increase in identification at the expense of Independents. Democrats saw the largest increase in identification after hitting an all-time low (23%) in the immediate aftermath of October 7th.”

According to AAI, the political consequences of Oct. 7 and Democrats’ response has down-ballot implications.

“Equally revealing is the fact that by a slight majority of 46% to 43%, voters in the community say they would prefer to see Republicans controlling the next Congress,” AAI said.