New pre-shooting poll shows narrow lead for Biden in Virginia

(The Center Square) — The New York Times/Siena College poll just released results from a voter survey taken before the Trump rally shooting, showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by just a few percentage points.

The results are causing more chatter about the role Virginia could play in the upcoming election since Biden won Virginia by 10% in 2020. Prior to a May poll by Roanoke College that showed the presidential candidates tied 42%-42%, Virginia was considered reliably blue for Biden – due to his previous performance and to the fact that George W. Bush was the last Republican presidential candidate to win the commonwealth in 2004.

The poll found Biden leading Trump by 3% (48%-45% ) in the deep purple state.

Taken about two weeks after the first Biden-Trump debate of 2024, the poll revealed less confidence among Democrats for Biden than among Republicans for Trump. Only 39% of Democrats polled thought Biden should continue to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, while 58% thought he should leave the race. Conversely, 80% of Republicans polled thought Trump should remain the party’s nominee, as opposed to just 18% who thought he should drop out.

Vice President Kamala Harris polled better than Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee, leading Trump by five percentage points, 49%-44%.

Almost 60% of respondents believed Trump was guilty of “serious federal crimes.”

The New York Times/Siena College poll is ranked no. 1 of 277 ranked polls by polling aggregate 538. Pollsters conducted phone interviews with 661 voters in Virginia over four days from July 9 to 12. The margin of error is 4.2 points, meaning “the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time,” according to the New York Times.