Poll: Trump in slight lead in Wisconsin while Eric Hovde surges forward in Senate race

A new Emerson College poll of likely voters reveals some changes in Midwest swing states.

Former President Donald Trump has a slim lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Wisconsin, 49% to 48%, while Harris slightly widened her lead over Trump in Michigan at 50% to 47%.

Independent voters are largely veering towards Harris, with 46% of Michigan Independents choosing Harris, versus 43% for Trump. In Wisconsin, the divide is starker, with 52% choosing Harris and 43% Trump.

Defying previous trends, Republican U.S. Senate candidate for Wisconsin Eric Hovde has improved to 48%, only 1 percentage point behind incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin, his opponent.

“We’ve had huge movement in the last 30 days,” Hovde said in a video on X following the poll’s release. “Wisconsin is the number one battleground. Whoever wins Wisconsin will control the White House, and if I win, we’ll not only take control of the U.S. Senate for the next two years, but potentially for the next four years.”

Support for the U.S. Senate candidates in Michigan remains relatively stable, with Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin still leading Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers 47% to 41%.

While the economy remains all respondents’ top concern in both states, the issue of immigration has fallen in importance, replaced by “threats to democracy” and housing affordability.

Results also showed voters under 30 overwhelmingly favor the Democratic presidential candidate, with Harris pulling 62% of support in Michigan and 54% in Wisconsin, compared to Trump’s 32% and 41%, respectively.

The survey, conducted August 25-28, included 800 Michigan voters with a +/-3.4% margin of error, and 850 Wisconsin voters with a +/-3.3% margin of error.