Trump’s reelection chances

The latest election polling shows the President is pretty far behind, but 91% of those who will vote for him this year believe he will be reelected.

Full Transcript:

Scott Rasmussen  0:09  

Good morning, Scott Rasmussen here. Welcome to my podcast: Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day. There's 17 weeks to go until Election Day and I'm going to take this morning to look at President Trump's supporters, his core base and why they're a bit of a double-edged sword for the President. They're a great source of strength, but they might also end up being a real problem for his campaign. Tomorrow, by the way, I'm going to look at a similar phenomenon in the Biden campaign. And then on Thursday, I'm going to take a look at an issue the Democrats are pushing that might help Republicans retain control of the US Senate. But on this Tuesday morning, the focus is Donald Trump's core supporters. The number of the day is 91. Among people who say they're gonna vote for President Trump this year, 91 percent believe he will be reelected. And you know, that's kind of a high number when you consider that the latest polling shows the president is pretty far behind in the polls. My latest numbers show the Joe Biden has a 10 point lead. And despite that lead, Trump voters are more confident of victory, then Biden supporters. 

So, what's going on? Well, part of it is that, you know, some of the Trump voters just dismiss polls they don't like. They believe, mistakenly, that the polls were wrong, in 2016. They'll be wrong again. You know, I talked about that last week. Another fact is they just believe that the President will come back. He's the comeback kid, and they were expecting things will change between now and November. And let's be very clear, the polling shows the president down by 10 points now. But the election is in 17 weeks and especially in a volatile year like this. Things could change pretty dramatically. You know, we at the beginning of the year, we didn't expect any of the issues that we're talking about right now to be on the table. So, when I say the president is behind, doesn't mean he's going to lose. But, what I want to look at in the B-block is a phenomenon that the President's strongest supporters, by their overconfidence and by the refusal to believe in the polls, may actually be a huge threat to his reelection campaign. While you're waiting for that, take a moment, share this podcast with your friends and be sure to subscribe to Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day.

Welcome back to Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day. I'm Scott, and today's number is 91. 91% of Trump voters think the President will be re-elected this November. That's a pretty big number considering he's 10 points down in the polls. His voters are more confident of victory than Joe Biden supporters. Part of the reason for this is a lot of Trump supporters simply don't believe the polls showing he's behind. They, mistakenly, believe the polls were wrong in 2016. And they'll be wrong again this year. As I said last week, the polls were pretty good, but the analysis of the polls was horrible. So, right now the president is behind in my polling, down by about 10 points. But there's 17 weeks to go, plenty of time for a comeback, especially in a volatile year like this. And when you take a look at the President's numbers, he has an incredibly firm and enthusiastic base of support. Three out of four of the President's supporters say they're enthusiastic about voting for him. For Joe Biden, it's not nearly that encouraging. About half say now, he's just the lesser of two evils. So, there's an enthusiasm image for the president, perhaps a turnout image. And you know, Joe Biden is kind of the generic Democrat. But the problem that President Trump faces is he has a strong, strong base that is not big enough to win the election. Other voters are needed. He needs to move beyond the base at least a little bit. I, look, I've heard all the arguments against that. 'No, all that matters is the Electoral College, you don't need to win the popular vote.' Well, actually, to win the Electoral College, you at least have to be close in the popular vote. 

You know, last time around the President was within a couple of points of Hillary Clinton. In the popular vote totals nationwide, he got 46% of the vote. And as of today, in my polling, we show the President's numbers, his job approval rating is at just 39%. Now, there's a couple of percent more who disapprove of the president, but things would be worse if Hillary had won. So, even if you give them those voters, well, you know, he's still in the low 40s. The president needs to find another five or six points in a popular vote to have a shot at winning the Electoral College. Again, I can hear voices saying, 'Oh my gosh, no, no, no, no, the president, he's got this great support they underestimated in 2016.' Well, actually, in 2016, what the exit polls revealed is that only about 36% of all voters nationwide thought Donald Trump was their man. They were excited about voting for him. 10% of voters and about a quarter, therefore the President's vote total, 10% of all voters said we do not believe Donald Trump is qualified to be president, but we're going to vote for him anyhow. Why? Well, partly because they thought Hillary Clinton was also unqualified to be president and they viewed President, then-candidate, Trump as the lesser of two evils. To win the President's supporters, his strongest and most loyal supporters, must recognize that they need those people that come back. They need those voters who said 'yeah, we're not so sure about this Trump guy, but we're gonna vote for him because he's not Hillary." They need for him to say this time around 'we're going to vote for the President.' How do you do that? Well, you have to move beyond the base and this is where the problem comes. This is why President Trump's strong support is a little bit of a double-edged sword. The people who support him so enthusiastically are so convinced he's going to win they don't think they need anybody else. And it shows in some of the rhetoric, it shows in some of the commentary you see. The biggest hope that President Trump has of getting reelected is that people begin to say, 'do I want Trump's policies or Biden's policies?' It's not going to be a case of, you know, do I love Donald Trump or do I not love Donald Trump. On that measure, the President would lose. 

So, the President's supporters, if they want to be helpful to his campaign, will begin to look for ways to reach out and move the president beyond his core base. Again, numbers are pretty clear. He got 36 percent of the vote in 2016 from people who really liked him, 10% of the voters cast their ballot for him despite believing he was unqualified to be president. Right now 39% approve of the job he's doing. And there's another couple of percent to think, even though I don't like the job he's doing, it would have been worse with Hillary. In either case, that puts the president right now winning support of around 40, 41, 42% of the vote. And he's going to have to move that up to at least 46 or 47%, to be reelected. And to make that happen, the President's strongest supporters are going to have to work for his campaign, not against it. That is going to be a big challenge for the Trump administration. 

I'm going to be back in the C-block talking about some of the electoral college implications. In tomorrow, as I mentioned, I'm going to be talking about a similar problem that Joe Biden may have with some of his most enthusiastic supporters. And then, on Thursday, look at the Senate and an issue that Democrats are pushing that could very well help Republican senators in battleground states. So, I'll be back in just a moment. And as always, you know, if you want to find the numbers that I'm talking about, go to my website, ScottRasmussen.com. The numbers are there, explanations of when we conducted the survey and the cross tabs and all that good information. ScottRasmussen.com.

Welcome back to Scott Rasmussen's Number of the Day. I'm Scott, and today's number is 91. 91% of the President's supporters think he's going to be reelected this year. In the B-block, I talked about the fact that, you know, that's good news. It gives the president a good base, but it's bad news because the base doesn't think he needs anybody else. In fact, he does. The President right now, you know, it would get somewhere in the low 40% range of the popular vote. That's not enough to make the electoral college competitive. And I think the best way to highlight this is to look back at the electoral college results from four years ago. It was fairly easy. I did it on television several times to show how President Trump, with all the numbers that were out there, could pretty easily get to 263 electoral college votes. The problem for President Trump was you needed 270. It was also, I won't say easy, but it was also clear that at some point, the only places that were really possible for the President to get those extra votes would be in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Those were states that were thought to be solidly democratic, but the makeup of the voters gave the president a chance. And the latest polling that was conducted in 2016 shows the president gaining ground in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, but the president needed those voters, he needed those, that little extra push, to get over the top. And that's where we are this year in the popular vote. The President has a good solid base that keeps him competitive, but he needs to win over another 4, 5, 6% of voters if he wants to be reelected. And what will happen if the President can get his numbers up from say 40, 41, 42% to about 46 or 47%? Well, then we'll be facing an election night just like we did in 2016, where the winner will be determined in a handful of battleground states.

I'll be back tomorrow morning talking about the double-edged sword that Joe Biden's campaign is going to have to deal with. And until then, have a great day.